TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457178
Played Aug 19Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611811––––
Anatolii Nikolenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nikolenko to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Anatolii Nikolenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Anatolii Nikolenko at 56.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 15–25 Anatolii Nikolenko Illia Fokin has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nikolenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-25 in 40
Nikolenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1076 vs Nikolenko 1040
Fokin
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 80% vs Nikolenko 60%
Fokin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 60% vs Nikolenko 80%
Nikolenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin -1 · Nikolenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Nikolenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 2.00 / Nikolenko 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Nikolenko)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12457178
Fokin2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 36 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Nikolenko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 91 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it98% 54 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it84% 68 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFokin4wins
AwayNikolenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNikolenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFokin57.1%4 of 7
AwayNikolenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fokin7Nikolenko3n = 10Fokin took 7 of 10
S2Fokin5Nikolenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Fokin2Nikolenko8n = 10Nikolenko took 8 of 10
S4Fokin2Nikolenko3n = 5Nikolenko took 3 of 5
S5Fokin1Nikolenko2n = 3Nikolenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFokinNikolenkoF − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.738.0−1.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinNikolenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 237 vs 329 / 69852.7%47.1%125 / 237 vs 329 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NikolenkoFokin 2.00/Nikolenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Nikolenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nikolenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 04:55I. Fokin—9470A. Nikolenko—1111113
WAug 14 · 15:55I. Fokin—1111133A. Nikolenko—56110
LAug 11 · 08:55I. Fokin—1111351A. Nikolenko—41311113
WAug 10 · 12:25I. Fokin—11117113A. Nikolenko—871181
WJul 23 · 07:55I. Fokin—1111129123A. Nikolenko—791411102
LJul 22 · 15:55I. Fokin—11960A. Nikolenko—1311113
LJul 16 · 07:25I. Fokin—1111911112A. Nikolenko—913118133
WJul 7 · 08:35I. Fokin—1111113A. Nikolenko—8790
LJun 9 · 08:55I. Fokin—111110492A. Nikolenko—791211113
LJun 8 · 12:25I. Fokin—14790A. Nikolenko—1611113
I. Fokin10
WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123WAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin1.9111911113M. Dunas1.80711781WAug 19 · 12:55D. Belanchik1.73771113122I. Fokin2.001111311143WAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak4.339770I. Fokin1.201111113
A. Nikolenko10
WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2.637370V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113LSep 3 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.36111116113A. Nikolenko3.00471841LSep 2 · 17:55M. Treschetka1.731112123A. Nikolenko2.00910100LSep 2 · 16:55A. Nikolenko3.00155331O. Maslovskyi1.36131111113LSep 2 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.6371111862V. Ivanytskyi1.44117811113LSep 2 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.80911761Y. Melnyk1.9111211113LAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293
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