TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467087
Played Aug 21Finished
Anatolii Nikolenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111311101259––
Illia Fokin
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nikolenko to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-9
Point 79 set 4, 5-9 — our read held Anatolii Nikolenko at 58.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 26–15 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 15 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nikolenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-15 in 41
Nikolenko
Wrong
gap of 11 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1042 vs Fokin 1055
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 80% vs Fokin 40%
Nikolenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 70% vs Fokin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko -1 · Fokin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nikolenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nikolenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 1.61 / Fokin 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Nikolenko)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467087
Nikolenko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 92 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Fokin2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 38 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko6wins
AwayFokin4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNikolenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko100%3 of 3
AwayFokin57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko3Fokin7n = 10Fokin took 7 of 10
S2Nikolenko5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S3Nikolenko8Fokin2n = 10Nikolenko took 8 of 10
S4Nikolenko3Fokin2n = 5Nikolenko took 3 of 5
S5Nikolenko2Fokin1n = 3Nikolenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoFokinN − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.0+1.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 691 vs 126 / 24047.5%52.5%328 / 691 vs 126 / 240Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NikolenkoNikolenko 1.61/Fokin 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.7%
Nikolenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 18:55A. Nikolenko—1111113I. Fokin—9680
WAug 15 · 04:55A. Nikolenko—1111113I. Fokin—9470
LAug 14 · 15:55A. Nikolenko—56110I. Fokin—1111133
WAug 11 · 08:55A. Nikolenko—41311113I. Fokin—1111351
LAug 10 · 12:25A. Nikolenko—871181I. Fokin—11117113
LJul 23 · 07:55A. Nikolenko—791411102I. Fokin—1111129123
WJul 22 · 15:55A. Nikolenko—1311113I. Fokin—11960
WJul 16 · 07:25A. Nikolenko—913118133I. Fokin—1111911112
LJul 7 · 08:35A. Nikolenko—8790I. Fokin—1111113
WJun 9 · 08:55A. Nikolenko—791211113I. Fokin—111110492
A. Nikolenko10
WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2.637370V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113LSep 3 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.36111116113A. Nikolenko3.00471841LSep 2 · 17:55M. Treschetka1.731112123A. Nikolenko2.00910100LSep 2 · 16:55A. Nikolenko3.00155331O. Maslovskyi1.36131111113LSep 2 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.6371111862V. Ivanytskyi1.44117811113LSep 2 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.80911761Y. Melnyk1.9111211113LSep 2 · 12:25A. Nikolenko1.73171191142M. Dunas2.00198118113
I. Fokin10
WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123WAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin1.9111911113M. Dunas1.80711781WAug 19 · 12:55D. Belanchik1.73771113122I. Fokin2.001111311143WAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak4.339770I. Fokin1.201111113
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