TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457164
Played Aug 19Finished
Oleg Sapuzhak
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118511114113––
Illia Fokin
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleg Sapuzhak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Sapuzhak above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 64 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Oleg Sapuzhak at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Sapuzhak 1–0 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sapuzhak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sapuzhak 1176 vs Fokin 1060
Sapuzhak
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sapuzhak 60% vs Fokin 80%
Fokin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sapuzhak 50% vs Fokin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sapuzhak -1 · Fokin +4
Fokin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sapuzhak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSapuzhak 1.57 / Fokin 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Sapuzhak)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12457164
Sapuzhak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 12 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Fokin2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 36 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSapuzhak1wins
AwayFokin0wins
Sapuzhak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSapuzhakFokinS − FBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.026.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSapuzhakFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 166 vs 125 / 23840.4%52.5%67 / 166 vs 125 / 238Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SapuzhakSapuzhak 1.57/Fokin 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Sapuzhak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sapuzhak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak—11511113I. Fokin—811431
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk1.8081111113O. Sapuzhak1.91113761
I. Fokin10
WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123WAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin1.9111911113M. Dunas1.80711781WAug 19 · 12:55D. Belanchik1.73771113122I. Fokin2.001111311143WAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak4.339770I. Fokin1.201111113
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