TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467037
Played Aug 21Finished
Oleh Martynenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
91161145––––
Illia Fokin
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Martynenko above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-5
Point 46 set 3, 4-5 — our read held Illia Fokin at 62.8%
46 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Martynenko 3–3 Illia Fokin Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martynenko 856 vs Fokin 1072
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 215 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martynenko 20% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martynenko 40% vs Fokin 70%
Fokin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martynenko -2 · Fokin +3
Fokin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Fokin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martynenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartynenko 2.10 / Fokin 1.67
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Fokin)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467037
Martynenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 21 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Fokin1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 60 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it69% 46 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMartynenko3wins
AwayFokin3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartynenko60%3 of 5
AwayFokinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martynenko5Fokin1n = 6Martynenko took 5 of 6
S2Martynenko3Fokin3n = 6split evenly
S3Martynenko2Fokin4n = 6Fokin took 4 of 6
S4Martynenko1Fokin4n = 5Fokin took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMartynenkoFokinM − FBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match34.237.3−3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartynenkoFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 343 vs 128 / 24244%52.9%151 / 343 vs 128 / 242Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinMartynenko 2.10/Fokin 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 15 · 05:55O. Martynenko—111177113I. Fokin—84111192
LAug 14 · 11:55O. Martynenko—116531I. Fokin—41111113
WJul 23 · 05:55O. Martynenko—1111133I. Fokin—67110
WJul 22 · 11:55O. Martynenko—11119143I. Fokin—3911121
LJul 16 · 05:55O. Martynenko—251351I. Fokin—111111113
LJul 7 · 11:05O. Martynenko—118631I. Fokin—81111113
O. Martynenko10
LAug 22 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.3351111792B. Pyrtyk3.25114711113LAug 22 · 08:55O. Martynenko1.7311117732A. Nikolenko2.00751111113LAug 22 · 07:25O. Martynenko1.4410970V. Sydorchuk2.631211113WAug 22 · 05:55O. Martynenko2.201111143Y. Shcherbak1.6188120LAug 22 · 04:25O. Martynenko3.757880V. Ivanytskyi1.251111113LAug 21 · 16:25Y. Shcherbak1.9161111113O. Martynenko1.80116751LAug 21 · 15:25O. Martynenko1.28211961V. Sydorchuk3.5011711113WAug 21 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.73815851O. Martynenko2.00111311113LAug 21 · 12:55O. Martynenko3.2561070V. Ivanytskyi1.331112113LAug 18 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.251111113O. Martynenko1.578990
I. Fokin10
WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123WAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin1.9111911113M. Dunas1.80711781WAug 19 · 12:55D. Belanchik1.73771113122I. Fokin2.001111311143WAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak4.339770I. Fokin1.201111113
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