TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451156
Played Aug 18Finished
Pavlo Melnichuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119119––––
Oleh Martynenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:38 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Martynenko to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavlo Melnichuk above · Oleh Martynenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Oleh Martynenko at 66.3%
59 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Melnichuk 3–2 Oleh Martynenko Oleh Martynenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Martynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnichuk 870 vs Martynenko 907
Martynenko
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnichuk 100% vs Martynenko 60%
Melnichuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnichuk 80% vs Martynenko 50%
Melnichuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnichuk +5 · Martynenko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martynenko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnichuk 2.25 / Martynenko 1.57
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Martynenko)-4.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12451156
Melnichuk2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 25 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Martynenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite39% won 25 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it64% 18 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMelnichuk3wins
AwayMartynenko2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMelnichuk leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnichuk100%3 of 3
AwayMartynenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnichuk3Martynenko2n = 5Melnichuk took 3 of 5
S2Melnichuk2Martynenko3n = 5Martynenko took 3 of 5
S3Melnichuk2Martynenko3n = 5Martynenko took 3 of 5
S4Melnichuk1Martynenko2n = 3Martynenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMelnichukMartynenkoMelnichuk − MartynenkoBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match36.437.4−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnichukMartynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 166 vs 153 / 34456%44.5%93 / 166 vs 153 / 344Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartynenkoMelnichuk 2.25/Martynenko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Martynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 18 · 10:25P. Melnichuk—1111113O. Martynenko—8990
WAug 17 · 18:25P. Melnichuk—1181011113O. Martynenko—91112382
WAug 15 · 04:25P. Melnichuk—117117113O. Martynenko—81141182
LJul 23 · 04:25P. Melnichuk—7112101O. Martynenko—11911123
LJul 22 · 13:25P. Melnichuk—9480O. Martynenko—1111113
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
O. Martynenko10
LAug 22 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.3351111792B. Pyrtyk3.25114711113LAug 22 · 08:55O. Martynenko1.7311117732A. Nikolenko2.00751111113LAug 22 · 07:25O. Martynenko1.4410970V. Sydorchuk2.631211113WAug 22 · 05:55O. Martynenko2.201111143Y. Shcherbak1.6188120LAug 22 · 04:25O. Martynenko3.757880V. Ivanytskyi1.251111113LAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153LAug 21 · 16:25Y. Shcherbak1.9161111113O. Martynenko1.80116751LAug 21 · 15:25O. Martynenko1.28211961V. Sydorchuk3.5011711113WAug 21 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.73815851O. Martynenko2.00111311113LAug 21 · 12:55O. Martynenko3.2561070V. Ivanytskyi1.331112113
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