TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037665
Played Aug 29Finished
Yuriy Shcherbak
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611111117––
Pavlo Melnichuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:23 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYuriy Shcherbak above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 67 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 61.2%
67 points played in total.
H2H Yuriy Shcherbak 12–7 Pavlo Melnichuk Pavlo Melnichuk has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 948 vs Melnichuk 841
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 40% vs Melnichuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Melnichuk 40%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -3 · Melnichuk +1
Shcherbak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.53 / Melnichuk 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Shcherbak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037665
Shcherbak1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 86 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it98% 49 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Melnichuk2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 30 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak5wins
AwayMelnichuk5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak60%3 of 5
AwayMelnichuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Melnichuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Shcherbak6Melnichuk4n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S3Shcherbak7Melnichuk3n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S4Shcherbak3Melnichuk5n = 8Melnichuk took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakMelnichukS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.934.6+0.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 252 vs 98 / 18154.4%54.1%137 / 252 vs 98 / 181Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.53/Melnichuk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak—11611113P. Melnichuk—911171
LAug 27 · 10:25Y. Shcherbak—164781P. Melnichuk—141111113
WAug 26 · 18:25Y. Shcherbak—61212113P. Melnichuk—11101071
LAug 18 · 04:25Y. Shcherbak—114671P. Melnichuk—71111113
WAug 17 · 12:55Y. Shcherbak—1111113P. Melnichuk—6570
WAug 15 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak—61111113P. Melnichuk—118831
LAug 11 · 08:25Y. Shcherbak—611971P. Melnichuk—11711113
LAug 10 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak—751171P. Melnichuk—11116113
WJul 23 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak—1111123P. Melnichuk—25100
LJul 22 · 18:55Y. Shcherbak—61111722P. Melnichuk—119711113
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270LAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771WAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
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