TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043816
Played Aug 30Finished
Pavlo Chyzh
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210611811119811
Pavlo Melnichuk
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timePavlo Chyzh to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavlo Chyzh above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Pavlo Chyzh at 72.3%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Chyzh 2–1 Pavlo Melnichuk Pavlo Melnichuk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Chyzh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chyzh 908 vs Melnichuk 843
Chyzh
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chyzh 40% vs Melnichuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chyzh 20% vs Melnichuk 40%
Melnichuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chyzh -2 · Melnichuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Chyzh) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chyzh form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChyzh 1.33 / Melnichuk 3.25
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Chyzh)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13043816
Chyzh1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite51% won 32 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Melnichuk3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChyzh2wins
AwayMelnichuk1wins
Chyzh leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chyzh1Melnichuk2n = 3Melnichuk took 2 of 3
S2Chyzh2Melnichuk1n = 3Chyzh took 2 of 3
S3Chyzh2Melnichuk1n = 3Chyzh took 2 of 3
S4Chyzh2Melnichuk1n = 3Chyzh took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChyzhMelnichukC − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.737.0+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChyzhMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 205 vs 99 / 18339.5%54.1%81 / 205 vs 99 / 183Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChyzhChyzh 1.33/Melnichuk 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Chyzh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh—101111113P. Melnichuk—129891
LAug 11 · 06:25P. Chyzh—811491P. Melnichuk—11411113
WAug 10 · 18:25P. Chyzh—111111113P. Melnichuk—613981
P. Chyzh10
LAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 09:25P. Chyzh2.25713119113V. Ivanytskyi1.57111151192LAug 30 · 06:55P. Chyzh1.731111951V. Sydorchuk2.0013911113LAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113WAug 29 · 18:25P. Chyzh1.4491111143O. Bolnyh2.631198121LAug 29 · 16:25Y. Melnyk1.671112113P. Chyzh2.1021070WAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270LAug 29 · 12:55P. Chyzh1.44881141V. Sydorchuk2.6311115113LAug 11 · 11:25P. Chyzh1.919139101V. Ivanytskyi1.80111111123
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171WAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
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