TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043806
Played Aug 30Finished
Yuriy Shcherbak
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711115911––
Pavlo Melnichuk
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 69.2% is still 69.2%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
69.2%
69.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYuriy Shcherbak above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 69.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Yuriy Shcherbak 12–8 Pavlo Melnichuk Pavlo Melnichuk has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 934 vs Melnichuk 890
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Melnichuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Melnichuk 40%
Shcherbak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +3 · Melnichuk +1
Shcherbak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.36 / Melnichuk 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Shcherbak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043806
Shcherbak1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 88 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it91% 67 of 74
Melnichuk3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak5wins
AwayMelnichuk5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak60%3 of 5
AwayMelnichuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Melnichuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Shcherbak5Melnichuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Shcherbak7Melnichuk3n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S4Shcherbak3Melnichuk5n = 8Melnichuk took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakMelnichukS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.833.5+1.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 257 vs 102 / 18654.5%54.8%140 / 257 vs 102 / 186Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.36/Melnichuk 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.2%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak—971191P. Melnichuk—11115113
WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak—11611113P. Melnichuk—911171
LAug 27 · 10:25Y. Shcherbak—164781P. Melnichuk—141111113
WAug 26 · 18:25Y. Shcherbak—61212113P. Melnichuk—11101071
LAug 18 · 04:25Y. Shcherbak—114671P. Melnichuk—71111113
WAug 17 · 12:55Y. Shcherbak—1111113P. Melnichuk—6570
WAug 15 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak—61111113P. Melnichuk—118831
LAug 11 · 08:25Y. Shcherbak—611971P. Melnichuk—11711113
LAug 10 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak—751171P. Melnichuk—11116113
WJul 23 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak—1111123P. Melnichuk—25100
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171LAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171WAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
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