TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043869
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411511113511––
Yuriy Shcherbak
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Bolnyh above · Yuriy Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 61 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 85.6%
61 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bolnyh 1–13 Yuriy Shcherbak Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 1 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-13 in 14
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 12 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bolnyh 746 vs Shcherbak 960
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 214 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bolnyh 40% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bolnyh 30% vs Shcherbak 50%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bolnyh -2 · Shcherbak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBolnyh 4.50 / Shcherbak 1.17
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Shcherbak)+6.2pp
Setka Cup · #13043869
Bolnyh4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Shcherbak1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite77% won 88 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it91% 67 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBolnyh0wins
AwayShcherbak10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBolnyh0%0 of 4
AwayShcherbak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bolnyh4Shcherbak6n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S2Bolnyh1Shcherbak9n = 10Shcherbak took 9 of 10
S3Bolnyh0Shcherbak10n = 10Shcherbak took 10 of 10
S4Bolnyh2Shcherbak3n = 5Shcherbak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricBolnyhShcherbakB − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match28.038.1−10.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBolnyhShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 169 vs 138 / 25345%54.6%76 / 169 vs 138 / 253Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakBolnyh 4.50/Shcherbak 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 15:55O. Bolnyh—5480Y. Shcherbak—1111113
LAug 27 · 04:55O. Bolnyh—1161411102Y. Shcherbak—311165123
LAug 26 · 12:55O. Bolnyh—1181071Y. Shcherbak—81112113
LJul 17 · 18:55O. Bolnyh—5111081Y. Shcherbak—11612113
LMay 28 · 17:25O. Bolnyh—11931192Y. Shcherbak—911116113
LMay 27 · 08:05O. Bolnyh—7350Y. Shcherbak—1111113
LMay 6 · 11:35O. Bolnyh—8650Y. Shcherbak—1111113
LMay 5 · 17:05O. Bolnyh—6730Y. Shcherbak—1111113
LApr 16 · 11:35O. Bolnyh—115591Y. Shcherbak—61111113
LApr 2 · 09:55O. Bolnyh—9450Y. Shcherbak—1111113
O. Bolnyh10
WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 08:55O. Bolnyh1.91511911113V. Sydorchuk1.8011911662LAug 30 · 07:25O. Bolnyh4.506970V. Ivanytskyi1.171111113LAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113LAug 29 · 18:25P. Chyzh1.4491111143O. Bolnyh2.631198121
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171LAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
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