TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078864
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117611118––
Mykhailo Senyk
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bolnyh to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Bolnyh above · Mykhailo Senyk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Bolnyh at 64.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bolnyh 14–17 Mykhailo Senyk Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bolnyh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-17 in 31
Senyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bolnyh 834 vs Senyk 608
Bolnyh
Correct
both rated, 226 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bolnyh 60% vs Senyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bolnyh 50% vs Senyk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bolnyh +3 · Senyk -1
Bolnyh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Bolnyh) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBolnyh 1.44 / Senyk 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Bolnyh)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13078864
Bolnyh1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 31 of 41
Senyk2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog16% won 17 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBolnyh7wins
AwaySenyk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBolnyh leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBolnyh100%6 of 6
AwaySenyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bolnyh6Senyk4n = 10Bolnyh took 6 of 10
S2Bolnyh6Senyk4n = 10Bolnyh took 6 of 10
S3Bolnyh3Senyk7n = 10Senyk took 7 of 10
S4Bolnyh7Senyk1n = 8Bolnyh took 7 of 8
S5Bolnyh2Senyk1n = 3Bolnyh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBolnyhSenykB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.336.6+3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBolnyhSenykBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 178 vs 141 / 34746.6%40.6%83 / 178 vs 141 / 347Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BolnyhBolnyh 1.44/Senyk 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Bolnyh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bolnyh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh—11116113M. Senyk—771181
WAug 13 · 11:25O. Bolnyh—41112113M. Senyk—1161081
WAug 12 · 12:55O. Bolnyh—111211113M. Senyk—714581
LAug 7 · 05:55O. Bolnyh—5790M. Senyk—1111113
LAug 6 · 05:25O. Bolnyh—9111091M. Senyk—11812113
WAug 5 · 13:25O. Bolnyh—119711113M. Senyk—21111662
WJul 18 · 06:25O. Bolnyh—118211123M. Senyk—711117102
WJul 17 · 13:55O. Bolnyh—1211113M. Senyk—10770
WJul 10 · 07:25O. Bolnyh—11118113M. Senyk—871171
LJul 9 · 12:25O. Bolnyh—10111111102M. Senyk—127137113
O. Bolnyh10
WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 08:55O. Bolnyh1.91511911113V. Sydorchuk1.8011911662LAug 30 · 07:25O. Bolnyh4.506970V. Ivanytskyi1.171111113LAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113LAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113LAug 29 · 18:25P. Chyzh1.4491111143O. Bolnyh2.631198121
M. Senyk10
WSep 5 · 10:55A. Lanchut3.407970M. Senyk1.301111113WSep 5 · 09:55V. Sydorchuk2.25817711102M. Senyk1.571115113123WSep 5 · 08:25O. Kulbach2.7558120M. Senyk1.401111143LSep 1 · 11:35A. Lanchut4.501114113M. Senyk1.1771280WSep 1 · 10:05M. Senyk1.801111113V. Sydorchuk1.917760WSep 1 · 08:05V. Moroz3.40991461M. Senyk1.30111112113LSep 1 · 06:05B. Pyrtyk1.13911116113M. Senyk5.5011961172WSep 1 · 05:05O. Kulbach2.7595111172M. Senyk1.40111197113LAug 18 · 10:55M. Senyk6.506950Y. Shcherbak1.101111113LAug 18 · 08:55P. Melnichuk1.10118179113M. Senyk6.50911151182
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