TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054710
Played Sep 1Finished
Vasyl Moroz
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9119111412611––
Mykhailo Senyk
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Senyk to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Moroz above · Mykhailo Senyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 83 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Mykhailo Senyk at 76.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moroz 4–16 Mykhailo Senyk Vasyl Moroz has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Senyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-16 in 20
Senyk
Correct
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moroz 470 vs Senyk 575
Senyk
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moroz 20% vs Senyk 40%
Senyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moroz 20% vs Senyk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moroz -1 · Senyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Senyk) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoroz 3.40 / Senyk 1.30
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Senyk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13054710
Moroz3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 21 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Senyk1.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite71% won 70 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it81% 48 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoroz3wins
AwaySenyk7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSenyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMorozn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySenyk62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moroz2Senyk8n = 10Senyk took 8 of 10
S2Moroz4Senyk6n = 10Senyk took 6 of 10
S3Moroz2Senyk8n = 10Senyk took 8 of 10
S4Moroz5Senyk3n = 8Moroz took 5 of 8
S5Moroz3Senyk2n = 5Moroz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMorozSenykM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.542.4−2.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorozSenykBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 100 vs 137 / 34431%39.8%31 / 100 vs 137 / 344Avg sets wonper match1.51.7per matchAvg pointsper match34.134.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SenykMoroz 3.40/Senyk 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Senyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Senyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 08:55V. Moroz—11881282M. Senyk—2111110113
LAug 6 · 08:55V. Moroz—6480M. Senyk—1111113
LAug 5 · 17:55V. Moroz—81111111M. Senyk—11913133
WJul 9 · 17:55V. Moroz—911711113M. Senyk—11711872
LJul 2 · 08:55V. Moroz—116791M. Senyk—71111113
LJul 1 · 15:55V. Moroz—5711101M. Senyk—11118123
WJun 19 · 07:55V. Moroz—812711113M. Senyk—111011572
WJun 18 · 16:55V. Moroz—713811113M. Senyk—111111742
LJun 12 · 04:55V. Moroz—128111192M. Senyk—141188113
LJun 3 · 07:25V. Moroz—10680M. Senyk—1211113
V. Moroz10
LSep 1 · 11:05V. Moroz4.5011880V. Sydorchuk1.171311113LSep 1 · 09:05B. Pyrtyk1.141111113V. Moroz5.004540LSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162WSep 1 · 05:35V. Moroz1.83711118113A. Lanchut1.8311971162LAug 7 · 10:55V. Moroz4.004660P. Melnichuk1.221111113LAug 7 · 08:55M. Senyk1.282111110113V. Moroz3.5011881282LAug 7 · 07:55V. Moroz4.5012117772O. Bolnyh1.171061111113WAug 7 · 06:55O. Kulbach2.105111181V. Moroz1.6711713113LAug 7 · 05:25V. Moroz3.755980V. Sydorchuk1.251111113LAug 6 · 10:25V. Moroz1.3611950O. Kulbach3.001311113
M. Senyk10
WSep 5 · 10:55A. Lanchut3.407970M. Senyk1.301111113WSep 5 · 09:55V. Sydorchuk2.25817711102M. Senyk1.571115113123WSep 5 · 08:25O. Kulbach2.7558120M. Senyk1.401111143LSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181LSep 1 · 11:35A. Lanchut4.501114113M. Senyk1.1771280WSep 1 · 10:05M. Senyk1.801111113V. Sydorchuk1.917760LSep 1 · 06:05B. Pyrtyk1.13911116113M. Senyk5.5011961172WSep 1 · 05:05O. Kulbach2.7595111172M. Senyk1.40111197113LAug 18 · 10:55M. Senyk6.506950Y. Shcherbak1.101111113WAug 7 · 08:55M. Senyk1.282111110113V. Moroz3.5011881282
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