TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12374764
Played Aug 7Finished
Vasyl Moroz
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210116711711711
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:50 and never touched — 87.4% is still 87.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bolnyh to win
87.4%
87.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Moroz above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Bolnyh at 87.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moroz 6–7 Oleksandr Bolnyh Vasyl Moroz has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:50What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Bolnyh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moroz 495 vs Bolnyh 741
Bolnyh
Correct
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moroz 20% vs Bolnyh 80%
Bolnyh
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moroz 10% vs Bolnyh 70%
Bolnyh
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moroz +1 · Bolnyh -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Bolnyh)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoroz 4.50 / Bolnyh 1.17
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Bolnyh)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12374764
Moroz4.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog30% won 21 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Bolnyh1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 28 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoroz4wins
AwayBolnyh6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBolnyh leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoroz75%3 of 4
AwayBolnyh83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moroz4Bolnyh6n = 10Bolnyh took 6 of 10
S2Moroz3Bolnyh7n = 10Bolnyh took 7 of 10
S3Moroz4Bolnyh6n = 10Bolnyh took 6 of 10
S4Moroz3Bolnyh4n = 7Bolnyh took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMorozBolnyhM − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.737.6−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorozBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 95 vs 62 / 14031.6%44.3%30 / 95 vs 62 / 140Avg sets wonper match1.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BolnyhMoroz 4.50/Bolnyh 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.4%
Bolnyh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bolnyh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 07:25V. Moroz—21290O. Bolnyh—1114113
LAug 5 · 12:25V. Moroz—711971O. Bolnyh—11911113
LJul 9 · 13:25V. Moroz—5860O. Bolnyh—1111113
WJul 2 · 05:55V. Moroz—1211113O. Bolnyh—10180
WJul 1 · 14:25V. Moroz—115911113O. Bolnyh—41111892
LJun 19 · 05:55V. Moroz—119491O. Bolnyh—91111113
WJun 18 · 12:25V. Moroz—681111113O. Bolnyh—11118952
WJun 3 · 05:55V. Moroz—11811113O. Bolnyh—811791
LJun 2 · 18:55V. Moroz—301141O. Bolnyh—11119113
LMay 2 · 05:55V. Moroz—9111291O. Bolnyh—11414113
V. Moroz10
LSep 1 · 11:05V. Moroz4.5011880V. Sydorchuk1.171311113LSep 1 · 09:05B. Pyrtyk1.141111113V. Moroz5.004540LSep 1 · 08:05V. Moroz3.40991461M. Senyk1.30111112113LSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162WSep 1 · 05:35V. Moroz1.83711118113A. Lanchut1.8311971162LAug 7 · 10:55V. Moroz4.004660P. Melnichuk1.221111113LAug 7 · 08:55M. Senyk1.282111110113V. Moroz3.5011881282WAug 7 · 06:55O. Kulbach2.105111181V. Moroz1.6711713113LAug 7 · 05:25V. Moroz3.755980V. Sydorchuk1.251111113LAug 6 · 10:25V. Moroz1.3611950O. Kulbach3.001311113
O. Bolnyh10
WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 08:55O. Bolnyh1.91511911113V. Sydorchuk1.8011911662LAug 30 · 07:25O. Bolnyh4.506970V. Ivanytskyi1.171111113LAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113LAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113
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