TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12374716
Played Aug 7Finished
Vasyl Moroz
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611611––––
Pavlo Melnichuk
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:54 and never touched — 87.6% is still 87.6%
Graded at full timePavlo Melnichuk to win
87.6%
87.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Moroz above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 49 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Pavlo Melnichuk at 87.6%
49 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moroz 3–10 Pavlo Melnichuk Vasyl Moroz has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:54What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Melnichuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Melnichuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moroz 483 vs Melnichuk 798
Melnichuk
Correct
both rated, 316 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moroz 20% vs Melnichuk 100%
Melnichuk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moroz 10% vs Melnichuk 100%
Melnichuk
Correct
90pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moroz -2 · Melnichuk +5
Melnichuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Melnichuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoroz 4.00 / Melnichuk 1.22
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Melnichuk)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12374716
Moroz4.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 21 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Melnichuk1.22
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 55 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it86% 42 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoroz2wins
AwayMelnichuk8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMelnichuk leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMorozn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnichuk87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moroz2Melnichuk8n = 10Melnichuk took 8 of 10
S2Moroz4Melnichuk6n = 10Melnichuk took 6 of 10
S3Moroz3Melnichuk7n = 10Melnichuk took 7 of 10
S4Moroz4Melnichuk3n = 7Moroz took 4 of 7
S5Moroz2Melnichuk4n = 6Melnichuk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMorozMelnichukMoroz − MelnichukBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.144.0−7.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorozMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 97 vs 78 / 14030.9%55.7%30 / 97 vs 78 / 140Avg sets wonper match1.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnichukMoroz 4.00/Melnichuk 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.6%
Melnichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 04:25V. Moroz—8850P. Melnichuk—1111113
LAug 5 · 15:55V. Moroz—58111182P. Melnichuk—111139113
LJul 9 · 11:55V. Moroz—511912102P. Melnichuk—1171110123
WJul 2 · 04:25V. Moroz—511611133P. Melnichuk—119116112
LJul 1 · 12:25V. Moroz—91610P. Melnichuk—1118113
LJun 19 · 09:55V. Moroz—11116512P. Melnichuk—691111113
LJun 18 · 15:55V. Moroz—7910P. Melnichuk—1111113
LJun 3 · 04:25V. Moroz—441151P. Melnichuk—11114113
LJun 2 · 13:55V. Moroz—9111311112P. Melnichuk—119159133
WMay 2 · 04:25V. Moroz—125118123P. Melnichuk—1011611102
V. Moroz10
LSep 1 · 11:05V. Moroz4.5011880V. Sydorchuk1.171311113LSep 1 · 09:05B. Pyrtyk1.141111113V. Moroz5.004540LSep 1 · 08:05V. Moroz3.40991461M. Senyk1.30111112113LSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162WSep 1 · 05:35V. Moroz1.83711118113A. Lanchut1.8311971162LAug 7 · 08:55M. Senyk1.282111110113V. Moroz3.5011881282LAug 7 · 07:55V. Moroz4.5012117772O. Bolnyh1.171061111113WAug 7 · 06:55O. Kulbach2.105111181V. Moroz1.6711713113LAug 7 · 05:25V. Moroz3.755980V. Sydorchuk1.251111113LAug 6 · 10:25V. Moroz1.3611950O. Kulbach3.001311113
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
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