TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037714
Played Aug 29Finished
Pavlo Melnichuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
101261178––––
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bolnyh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavlo Melnichuk above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-8
Point 54 set 3, 7-8 — our read held Oleksandr Bolnyh at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Melnichuk 11–12 Oleksandr Bolnyh Pavlo Melnichuk has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:27What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bolnyh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnichuk 833 vs Bolnyh 743
Melnichuk
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnichuk 20% vs Bolnyh 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnichuk 30% vs Bolnyh 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnichuk -3 · Bolnyh -1
Melnichuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melnichuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnichuk 2.00 / Bolnyh 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Melnichuk)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13037714
Melnichuk2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 30 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Bolnyh1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 35 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnichuk5wins
AwayBolnyh5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnichuk75%3 of 4
AwayBolnyh66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnichuk4Bolnyh6n = 10Bolnyh took 6 of 10
S2Melnichuk3Bolnyh7n = 10Bolnyh took 7 of 10
S3Melnichuk6Bolnyh4n = 10Melnichuk took 6 of 10
S4Melnichuk2Bolnyh4n = 6Bolnyh took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnichukBolnyhM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.636.6−3.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnichukBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 179 vs 75 / 16654.2%45.2%97 / 179 vs 75 / 166Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnichukMelnichuk 2.00/Bolnyh 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Melnichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bolnyh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 05:55P. Melnichuk—61030O. Bolnyh—1112113
LAug 26 · 13:55P. Melnichuk—117491O. Bolnyh—81111113
WAug 7 · 09:55P. Melnichuk—118114113O. Bolnyh—71171172
WAug 6 · 06:25P. Melnichuk—4112010113O. Bolnyh—116181282
LAug 5 · 17:25P. Melnichuk—681131O. Bolnyh—11119113
WJul 10 · 06:25P. Melnichuk—91311113O. Bolnyh—1111581
LJul 9 · 17:25P. Melnichuk—1980O. Bolnyh—1111113
WJul 2 · 09:55P. Melnichuk—11911113O. Bolnyh—511951
LJul 1 · 15:25P. Melnichuk—8660O. Bolnyh—1111113
WJun 19 · 04:25P. Melnichuk—1111113O. Bolnyh—7490
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171WAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
O. Bolnyh10
WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 08:55O. Bolnyh1.91511911113V. Sydorchuk1.8011911662LAug 30 · 07:25O. Bolnyh4.506970V. Ivanytskyi1.171111113LAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113LAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113
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