TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022639
Played Aug 27Finished
Pavlo Melnichuk
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1416114117118––
Yuriy Shcherbak
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavlo Melnichuk above · Yuriy Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 82 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 57.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Melnichuk 6–11 Yuriy Shcherbak Pavlo Melnichuk has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnichuk 841 vs Shcherbak 948
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnichuk 20% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnichuk 40% vs Shcherbak 70%
Shcherbak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnichuk -1 · Shcherbak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Shcherbak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnichuk 2.63 / Shcherbak 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Shcherbak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13022639
Melnichuk2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Shcherbak1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 84 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it98% 48 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it91% 64 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnichuk4wins
AwayShcherbak6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnichuk42.9%3 of 7
AwayShcherbak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnichuk7Shcherbak3n = 10Melnichuk took 7 of 10
S2Melnichuk2Shcherbak8n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S3Melnichuk2Shcherbak8n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S4Melnichuk4Shcherbak4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnichukShcherbakM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.735.9−1.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnichukShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 175 vs 134 / 24654.9%54.5%96 / 175 vs 134 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakMelnichuk 2.63/Shcherbak 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 18:25P. Melnichuk—11101071Y. Shcherbak—61212113
WAug 18 · 04:25P. Melnichuk—71111113Y. Shcherbak—114671
LAug 17 · 12:55P. Melnichuk—6570Y. Shcherbak—1111113
LAug 15 · 06:25P. Melnichuk—118831Y. Shcherbak—61111113
WAug 11 · 08:25P. Melnichuk—11711113Y. Shcherbak—611971
WAug 10 · 11:55P. Melnichuk—11116113Y. Shcherbak—751171
LJul 23 · 06:25P. Melnichuk—25100Y. Shcherbak—1111123
WJul 22 · 18:55P. Melnichuk—119711113Y. Shcherbak—61111722
LJun 25 · 06:55P. Melnichuk—136991Y. Shcherbak—111111113
LJun 24 · 15:55P. Melnichuk—1191091Y. Shcherbak—61112113
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
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