TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037796
Played Aug 29Finished
Yuriy Shcherbak
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115114118––––
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYuriy Shcherbak above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 50 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 84.6%
50 points played in total.
H2H Yuriy Shcherbak 12–1 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-1 in 13
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 959 vs Bolnyh 756
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 204 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 40% vs Bolnyh 20%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 70% vs Bolnyh 30%
Shcherbak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +2 · Bolnyh +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.20 / Bolnyh 4.33
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Shcherbak)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13037796
Shcherbak1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 86 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it98% 49 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Bolnyh4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 39 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak10wins
AwayBolnyh0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak100%6 of 6
AwayBolnyh0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak6Bolnyh4n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S2Shcherbak9Bolnyh1n = 10Shcherbak took 9 of 10
S3Shcherbak10Bolnyh0n = 10Shcherbak took 10 of 10
S4Shcherbak3Bolnyh2n = 5Shcherbak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakBolnyhS − BBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.128.0+10.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 249 vs 75 / 16554.6%45.5%136 / 249 vs 75 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.20/Bolnyh 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 04:55Y. Shcherbak—311165123O. Bolnyh—1161411102
WAug 26 · 12:55Y. Shcherbak—81112113O. Bolnyh—1181071
WJul 17 · 18:55Y. Shcherbak—11612113O. Bolnyh—5111081
WMay 28 · 17:25Y. Shcherbak—911116113O. Bolnyh—11931192
WMay 27 · 08:05Y. Shcherbak—1111113O. Bolnyh—7350
WMay 6 · 11:35Y. Shcherbak—1111113O. Bolnyh—8650
WMay 5 · 17:05Y. Shcherbak—1111113O. Bolnyh—6730
WApr 16 · 11:35Y. Shcherbak—61111113O. Bolnyh—115591
WApr 2 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak—1111113O. Bolnyh—9450
WApr 1 · 15:25Y. Shcherbak—1111113O. Bolnyh—9440
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171LAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
O. Bolnyh10
WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 08:55O. Bolnyh1.91511911113V. Sydorchuk1.8011911662LAug 30 · 07:25O. Bolnyh4.506970V. Ivanytskyi1.171111113LAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113LAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113
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