TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037713
Played Aug 29Finished
Yuriy Melnyk
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131161178111210
Yuriy Shcherbak
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 78.5% is still 78.5%
Graded at full timeYuriy Melnyk to win
78.5%
78.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYuriy Melnyk above · Yuriy Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 100 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Yuriy Melnyk at 78.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Yuriy Melnyk 12–1 Yuriy Shcherbak Yuriy Shcherbak has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Melnyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-1 in 13
Melnyk
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnyk 1070 vs Shcherbak 948
Melnyk
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnyk 80% vs Shcherbak 60%
Melnyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnyk 50% vs Shcherbak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnyk +4 · Shcherbak -1
Melnyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Melnyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnyk 1.25 / Shcherbak 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 22%
Edge (Melnyk)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13037713
Melnyk1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 26 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Shcherbak3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 25 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnyk9wins
AwayShcherbak1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnyk leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnyk87.5%7 of 8
AwayShcherbakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnyk8Shcherbak2n = 10Melnyk took 8 of 10
S2Melnyk7Shcherbak3n = 10Melnyk took 7 of 10
S3Melnyk7Shcherbak3n = 10Melnyk took 7 of 10
S4Melnyk4Shcherbak2n = 6Melnyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykShcherbakM − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.032.6+7.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 216 vs 137 / 25253.2%54.4%115 / 216 vs 137 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnykMelnyk 1.25/Shcherbak 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.5%
Melnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk—1111118123Y. Shcherbak—136711102
WJul 16 · 10:55Y. Melnyk—14911113Y. Shcherbak—1211961
LJun 24 · 16:55Y. Melnyk—1110691Y. Shcherbak—61211113
WJun 6 · 07:55Y. Melnyk—1111113Y. Shcherbak—7770
WJun 5 · 13:55Y. Melnyk—1111113Y. Shcherbak—9730
WMay 30 · 07:55Y. Melnyk—11118143Y. Shcherbak—7711121
WMay 16 · 07:25Y. Melnyk—136711113Y. Shcherbak—111111782
WMay 12 · 18:25Y. Melnyk—1111113Y. Shcherbak—9780
WMay 6 · 07:35Y. Melnyk—91111113Y. Shcherbak—115941
WJan 24 · 08:55Y. Melnyk—1111113Y. Shcherbak—9950
Y. Melnyk10
WSep 2 · 18:25Y. Melnyk1.731111113V. Ivanytskyi2.006870LSep 2 · 16:25M. Treschetka1.401111113Y. Melnyk2.756650WSep 2 · 15:25Y. Melnyk1.801111113M. Dunas1.916860WSep 2 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.80911761Y. Melnyk1.9111211113WSep 2 · 12:55Y. Melnyk2.75129117113O. Maslovskyi1.40101131172WAug 29 · 16:25Y. Melnyk1.671112113P. Chyzh2.1021070WAug 29 · 14:55Y. Melnyk1.171181211113V. Sydorchuk4.50131110732WAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771WAug 29 · 11:55Y. Melnyk1.171111113O. Bolnyh4.507870LJul 27 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi1.441111113Y. Melnyk2.634350
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171LAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
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