TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043885
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711119311511
Pavlo Melnichuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bolnyh to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Bolnyh above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Bolnyh at 60.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bolnyh 13–11 Pavlo Melnichuk Pavlo Melnichuk has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bolnyh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Bolnyh
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bolnyh 755 vs Melnichuk 841
Melnichuk
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bolnyh 40% vs Melnichuk 20%
Bolnyh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bolnyh 30% vs Melnichuk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bolnyh -1 · Melnichuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Bolnyh) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBolnyh 1.57 / Melnichuk 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Bolnyh)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13043885
Bolnyh1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 35 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it75% 27 of 36
Melnichuk2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 30 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBolnyh6wins
AwayMelnichuk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBolnyh leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBolnyh71.4%5 of 7
AwayMelnichuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bolnyh7Melnichuk3n = 10Bolnyh took 7 of 10
S2Bolnyh8Melnichuk2n = 10Bolnyh took 8 of 10
S3Bolnyh5Melnichuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Bolnyh4Melnichuk2n = 6Bolnyh took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBolnyhMelnichukB − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.732.6+5.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBolnyhMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 168 vs 98 / 18145.2%54.1%76 / 168 vs 98 / 181Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BolnyhBolnyh 1.57/Melnichuk 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Bolnyh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 17:25O. Bolnyh—121183P. Melnichuk—10670
WAug 27 · 05:55O. Bolnyh—1112113P. Melnichuk—61030
WAug 26 · 13:55O. Bolnyh—81111113P. Melnichuk—117491
LAug 7 · 09:55O. Bolnyh—71171172P. Melnichuk—118114113
LAug 6 · 06:25O. Bolnyh—116181282P. Melnichuk—4112010113
WAug 5 · 17:25O. Bolnyh—11119113P. Melnichuk—681131
LJul 10 · 06:25O. Bolnyh—1111581P. Melnichuk—91311113
WJul 9 · 17:25O. Bolnyh—1111113P. Melnichuk—1980
LJul 2 · 09:55O. Bolnyh—511951P. Melnichuk—11911113
WJul 1 · 15:25O. Bolnyh—1111113P. Melnichuk—8660
O. Bolnyh10
WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 08:55O. Bolnyh1.91511911113V. Sydorchuk1.8011911662LAug 30 · 07:25O. Bolnyh4.506970V. Ivanytskyi1.171111113LAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113LAug 29 · 18:25P. Chyzh1.4491111143O. Bolnyh2.631198121
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171WAug 27 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.63141111113Y. Shcherbak1.44164781
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