TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12367179
Played Aug 6Finished
Vasyl Moroz
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113911511––––
Oleksii Kulbach
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeVasyl Moroz to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasyl Moroz above · Oleksii Kulbach below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 60 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Vasyl Moroz at 74.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moroz 8–3 Oleksii Kulbach Oleksii Kulbach has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Moroz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Moroz
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moroz 514 vs Kulbach 367
Moroz
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moroz 0% vs Kulbach 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moroz 20% vs Kulbach 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moroz -5 · Kulbach -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Moroz) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulbach form (0%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoroz 1.36 / Kulbach 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Moroz)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12367179
Moroz1.36
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kulbach3.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog14% won 10 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back7% 4 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoroz8wins
AwayKulbach2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMoroz leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoroz87.5%7 of 8
AwayKulbachn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moroz8Kulbach2n = 10Moroz took 8 of 10
S2Moroz6Kulbach4n = 10Moroz took 6 of 10
S3Moroz6Kulbach4n = 10Moroz took 6 of 10
S4Moroz3Kulbach3n = 6split evenly
S5Moroz3Kulbach1n = 4Moroz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMorozKulbachM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.436.4+3.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorozKulbachBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 92 vs 39 / 18831.5%20.7%29 / 92 vs 39 / 188Avg sets wonper match1.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match33.932.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MorozMoroz 1.36/Kulbach 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.8%
Moroz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kulbach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 9 · 16:25V. Moroz—11111113O. Kulbach—811941
WJul 1 · 17:55V. Moroz—8101111133O. Kulbach—111225112
WJun 19 · 04:55V. Moroz—11113113O. Kulbach—981171
WJun 18 · 17:55V. Moroz—1111113O. Kulbach—5980
WJun 12 · 07:55V. Moroz—1481114113O. Kulbach—121181682
WJun 2 · 12:55V. Moroz—1312113O. Kulbach—111040
WMay 2 · 10:25V. Moroz—1111113O. Kulbach—9850
WMay 1 · 14:55V. Moroz—111229113O. Kulbach—410111152
LApr 4 · 05:55V. Moroz—11188922O. Kulbach—9161111113
LNov 21 · 09:25V. Moroz—8730O. Kulbach—1111113
V. Moroz10
LSep 1 · 11:05V. Moroz4.5011880V. Sydorchuk1.171311113LSep 1 · 09:05B. Pyrtyk1.141111113V. Moroz5.004540LSep 1 · 08:05V. Moroz3.40991461M. Senyk1.30111112113LSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162WSep 1 · 05:35V. Moroz1.83711118113A. Lanchut1.8311971162LAug 7 · 10:55V. Moroz4.004660P. Melnichuk1.221111113LAug 7 · 08:55M. Senyk1.282111110113V. Moroz3.5011881282LAug 7 · 07:55V. Moroz4.5012117772O. Bolnyh1.171061111113WAug 7 · 06:55O. Kulbach2.105111181V. Moroz1.6711713113LAug 7 · 05:25V. Moroz3.755980V. Sydorchuk1.251111113
O. Kulbach10
WSep 5 · 10:25M. Kornijchuk1.22211117102O. Kulbach4.00118711123LSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113LSep 5 · 08:25O. Kulbach2.7558120M. Senyk1.401111143WSep 5 · 06:55O. Kulbach1.73118911113A. Lanchut2.0081111872LSep 5 · 04:55O. Kulbach4.50711451V. Sydorchuk1.1711411113LSep 1 · 10:35B. Pyrtyk1.0891111113O. Kulbach7.00117891LSep 1 · 09:35O. Kulbach1.57121379102A. Lanchut2.2510111111123WSep 1 · 08:35O. Kulbach6.5091111113V. Sydorchuk1.10118891WSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162LAug 7 · 06:55O. Kulbach2.105111181V. Moroz1.6711713113
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