TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079454
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleksii Kulbach
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5118111214––––
Mykhailo Senyk
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Senyk to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Kulbach above · Mykhailo Senyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 61 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Mykhailo Senyk at 67.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Kulbach 13–28 Mykhailo Senyk Oleksii Kulbach has won 13 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Senyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-28 in 41
Senyk
Correct
gap of 15 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulbach 386 vs Senyk 575
Senyk
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulbach 40% vs Senyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulbach 30% vs Senyk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulbach +1 · Senyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Senyk) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulbach 2.75 / Senyk 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Senyk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079454
Kulbach2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog14% won 13 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back8% 5 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Senyk1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 71 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it82% 50 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKulbach2wins
AwaySenyk8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSenyk leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulbachn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySenyk75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulbach2Senyk8n = 10Senyk took 8 of 10
S2Kulbach4Senyk6n = 10Senyk took 6 of 10
S3Kulbach3Senyk7n = 10Senyk took 7 of 10
S4Kulbach5Senyk3n = 8Kulbach took 5 of 8
S5Kulbach2Senyk4n = 6Senyk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKulbachSenykK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.546.0−5.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulbachSenykBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 191 vs 139 / 34822.5%39.9%43 / 191 vs 139 / 348Avg sets wonper match1.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match33.634.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SenykKulbach 2.75/Senyk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Senyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Senyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 05:05O. Kulbach—95111172M. Senyk—111197113
LAug 12 · 16:25O. Kulbach—117671M. Senyk—81111113
LAug 7 · 10:25O. Kulbach—99120M. Senyk—1111143
LAug 6 · 06:55O. Kulbach—114531M. Senyk—91111113
LJul 18 · 09:25O. Kulbach—1011121392M. Senyk—1281411113
WJul 17 · 11:55O. Kulbach—711119113M. Senyk—11691172
WJul 9 · 14:25O. Kulbach—1011811113M. Senyk—12911992
LJul 1 · 11:55O. Kulbach—911912122M. Senyk—1191110143
LJun 19 · 06:55O. Kulbach—881112112M. Senyk—1111910133
LJun 18 · 14:55O. Kulbach—9560M. Senyk—1111113
O. Kulbach10
WSep 5 · 10:25M. Kornijchuk1.22211117102O. Kulbach4.00118711123LSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 06:55O. Kulbach1.73118911113A. Lanchut2.0081111872LSep 5 · 04:55O. Kulbach4.50711451V. Sydorchuk1.1711411113LSep 1 · 10:35B. Pyrtyk1.0891111113O. Kulbach7.00117891LSep 1 · 09:35O. Kulbach1.57121379102A. Lanchut2.2510111111123WSep 1 · 08:35O. Kulbach6.5091111113V. Sydorchuk1.10118891WSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162LSep 1 · 05:05O. Kulbach2.7595111172M. Senyk1.40111197113LAug 12 · 17:55O. Kulbach5.50111575102R. Skoropad1.138131111123
M. Senyk10
WSep 5 · 10:55A. Lanchut3.407970M. Senyk1.301111113WSep 5 · 09:55V. Sydorchuk2.25817711102M. Senyk1.571115113123LSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181LSep 1 · 11:35A. Lanchut4.501114113M. Senyk1.1771280WSep 1 · 10:05M. Senyk1.801111113V. Sydorchuk1.917760WSep 1 · 08:05V. Moroz3.40991461M. Senyk1.30111112113LSep 1 · 06:05B. Pyrtyk1.13911116113M. Senyk5.5011961172WSep 1 · 05:05O. Kulbach2.7595111172M. Senyk1.40111197113LAug 18 · 10:55M. Senyk6.506950Y. Shcherbak1.101111113LAug 18 · 08:55P. Melnichuk1.10118179113M. Senyk6.50911151182
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