TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12407130
Played Aug 12Finished
Oleksii Kulbach
Home
5.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11815137115111012
Ruslan Skoropad
Away
1.13
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:44 and never touched — 85.4% is still 85.4%
Graded at full timeRuslan Skoropad to win
85.4%
85.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Kulbach above · Ruslan Skoropad below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 103 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Ruslan Skoropad at 85.4%
103 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Kulbach 4–5 Ruslan Skoropad Oleksii Kulbach has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Skoropad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulbach 359 vs Skoropad 734
Skoropad
Correct
both rated, 375 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulbach 20% vs Skoropad 40%
Skoropad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulbach 20% vs Skoropad 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulbach -3 · Skoropad -1
Kulbach
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Skoropad) · live re-read · sealed at 85% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skoropad form (40%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulbach 5.50 / Skoropad 1.13
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Skoropad)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12407130
Kulbach5.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog13% won 11 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back7% 4 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Skoropad1.13
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 32 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKulbach4wins
AwaySkoropad5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderSkoropad leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulbach50%2 of 4
AwaySkoropad60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulbach4Skoropad5n = 9Skoropad took 5 of 9
S2Kulbach3Skoropad6n = 9Skoropad took 6 of 9
S3Kulbach4Skoropad5n = 9Skoropad took 5 of 9
S4Kulbach2Skoropad3n = 5Skoropad took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricKulbachSkoropadK − SBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match34.636.3−1.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulbachSkoropadBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 198 vs 55 / 10820.7%50.9%41 / 198 vs 55 / 108Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkoropadKulbach 5.50/Skoropad 1.13
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84%
Skoropad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skoropad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LApr 4 · 08:55O. Kulbach—841191R. Skoropad—11118113
LMar 17 · 11:35O. Kulbach—7840R. Skoropad—1111113
LDec 12 · 17:25O. Kulbach—89130R. Skoropad—1111153
LNov 28 · 11:10O. Kulbach—116891R. Skoropad—71111113
WNov 28 · 07:25O. Kulbach—1111113R. Skoropad—7640
WNov 27 · 15:55O. Kulbach—511813123R. Skoropad—1181111102
WNov 21 · 10:25O. Kulbach—1111113R. Skoropad—8950
LOct 17 · 16:55O. Kulbach—115871R. Skoropad—81111113
WOct 6 · 16:55O. Kulbach—5111211113R. Skoropad—111310382
O. Kulbach10
WSep 5 · 10:25M. Kornijchuk1.22211117102O. Kulbach4.00118711123LSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113LSep 5 · 08:25O. Kulbach2.7558120M. Senyk1.401111143WSep 5 · 06:55O. Kulbach1.73118911113A. Lanchut2.0081111872LSep 5 · 04:55O. Kulbach4.50711451V. Sydorchuk1.1711411113LSep 1 · 10:35B. Pyrtyk1.0891111113O. Kulbach7.00117891LSep 1 · 09:35O. Kulbach1.57121379102A. Lanchut2.2510111111123WSep 1 · 08:35O. Kulbach6.5091111113V. Sydorchuk1.10118891WSep 1 · 07:05O. Kulbach2.63121166113V. Moroz1.44109111162LSep 1 · 05:05O. Kulbach2.7595111172M. Senyk1.40111197113
R. Skoropad10
WAug 13 · 10:55R. Skoropad1.17117118113A. Lanchut4.5081181192LAug 13 · 08:55V. Sydorchuk2.6311124113R. Skoropad1.440101191LAug 13 · 07:55R. Skoropad1.831111961O. Bolnyh1.8313811113LAug 13 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk1.441111113R. Skoropad2.634340WAug 13 · 05:25R. Skoropad1.36111111113M. Senyk3.00135371LAug 12 · 16:55R. Skoropad1.7311511432O. Bolnyh2.00911511113WAug 12 · 15:55R. Skoropad1.3011119113A. Lanchut3.40471111WAug 12 · 14:25R. Skoropad1.331110117113M. Senyk3.2531251172LAug 12 · 12:25R. Skoropad1.33111161172V. Sydorchuk3.25139117113LAug 5 · 18:25R. Skoropad1.53861181P. Melnichuk2.3811118113
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