TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12407158
Played Aug 12Finished
Ruslan Skoropad
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1131012115711117
Mykhailo Senyk
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeRuslan Skoropad to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Skoropad above · Mykhailo Senyk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ruslan Skoropad at 74.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Skoropad 14–5 Mykhailo Senyk Mykhailo Senyk has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:47What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Skoropad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-5 in 19
Skoropad
Correct
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skoropad 736 vs Senyk 611
Skoropad
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skoropad 20% vs Senyk 80%
Senyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skoropad 10% vs Senyk 70%
Senyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skoropad -2 · Senyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Skoropad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkoropad 1.33 / Senyk 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Skoropad)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12407158
Skoropad1.33
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 32 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Senyk3.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 19 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back6% 4 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkoropad8wins
AwaySenyk2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkoropad leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkoropad100%7 of 7
AwaySenyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skoropad7Senyk3n = 10Skoropad took 7 of 10
S2Skoropad7Senyk3n = 10Skoropad took 7 of 10
S3Skoropad3Senyk7n = 10Senyk took 7 of 10
S4Skoropad5Senyk1n = 6Skoropad took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkoropadSenykSkoropad − SenykBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.433.2+4.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkoropadSenykBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 105 vs 133 / 32850.5%40.6%53 / 105 vs 133 / 328Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.234.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkoropadSkoropad 1.33/Senyk 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Skoropad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skoropad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 16:25R. Skoropad—71111113M. Senyk—115691
WMay 27 · 07:35R. Skoropad—1111913113M. Senyk—37111562
LMay 20 · 07:05R. Skoropad—5460M. Senyk—1111113
WMay 13 · 06:55R. Skoropad—1111113M. Senyk—4660
LMay 12 · 13:25R. Skoropad—5690M. Senyk—1111113
WApr 4 · 05:25R. Skoropad—15117113M. Senyk—1391161
WApr 2 · 07:25R. Skoropad—119911153M. Senyk—511119132
WApr 1 · 13:55R. Skoropad—11137113M. Senyk—2111171
WMar 17 · 08:35R. Skoropad—1111113M. Senyk—8990
WMar 8 · 09:25R. Skoropad—11114113M. Senyk—581181
R. Skoropad10
WAug 13 · 10:55R. Skoropad1.17117118113A. Lanchut4.5081181192LAug 13 · 08:55V. Sydorchuk2.6311124113R. Skoropad1.440101191LAug 13 · 07:55R. Skoropad1.831111961O. Bolnyh1.8313811113LAug 13 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk1.441111113R. Skoropad2.634340WAug 13 · 05:25R. Skoropad1.36111111113M. Senyk3.00135371WAug 12 · 17:55O. Kulbach5.50111575102R. Skoropad1.138131111123LAug 12 · 16:55R. Skoropad1.7311511432O. Bolnyh2.00911511113WAug 12 · 15:55R. Skoropad1.3011119113A. Lanchut3.40471111LAug 12 · 12:25R. Skoropad1.33111161172V. Sydorchuk3.25139117113LAug 5 · 18:25R. Skoropad1.53861181P. Melnichuk2.3811118113
M. Senyk10
WSep 5 · 10:55A. Lanchut3.407970M. Senyk1.301111113WSep 5 · 09:55V. Sydorchuk2.25817711102M. Senyk1.571115113123WSep 5 · 08:25O. Kulbach2.7558120M. Senyk1.401111143LSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181LSep 1 · 11:35A. Lanchut4.501114113M. Senyk1.1771280WSep 1 · 10:05M. Senyk1.801111113V. Sydorchuk1.917760WSep 1 · 08:05V. Moroz3.40991461M. Senyk1.30111112113LSep 1 · 06:05B. Pyrtyk1.13911116113M. Senyk5.5011961172WSep 1 · 05:05O. Kulbach2.7595111172M. Senyk1.40111197113LAug 13 · 05:25R. Skoropad1.36111111113M. Senyk3.00135371
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