TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12406916
Played Aug 12Finished
Ruslan Skoropad
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511115411311
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeRuslan Skoropad to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRuslan Skoropad above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 81 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Ruslan Skoropad at 57.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Skoropad 5–3 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:36What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skoropad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Skoropad
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skoropad 734 vs Bolnyh 745
Bolnyh
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skoropad 60% vs Bolnyh 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skoropad 30% vs Bolnyh 70%
Bolnyh
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skoropad +2 · Bolnyh +3
Bolnyh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skoropad) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkoropad 1.73 / Bolnyh 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Skoropad)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12406916
Skoropad1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 32 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Bolnyh2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 33 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSkoropad5wins
AwayBolnyh3wins
6 of 8 to a deciderSkoropad leads 5–3, and 6 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkoropad75%3 of 4
AwayBolnyh50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skoropad4Bolnyh4n = 8split evenly
S2Skoropad1Bolnyh7n = 8Bolnyh took 7 of 8
S3Skoropad5Bolnyh3n = 8Skoropad took 5 of 8
S4Skoropad5Bolnyh1n = 6Skoropad took 5 of 6
S5Skoropad4Bolnyh2n = 6Skoropad took 4 of 6
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSkoropadBolnyhS − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.641.60.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkoropadBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 108 vs 67 / 14750.9%45.6%55 / 108 vs 67 / 147Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkoropadSkoropad 1.73/Bolnyh 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Skoropad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bolnyh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 12 · 16:55R. Skoropad—11511432O. Bolnyh—911511113
LAug 5 · 15:25R. Skoropad—79111192O. Bolnyh—111196113
LMay 27 · 11:35R. Skoropad—8190O. Bolnyh—1111113
WMay 20 · 09:05R. Skoropad—891111113O. Bolnyh—11115762
WApr 2 · 04:25R. Skoropad—891111113O. Bolnyh—11117582
WApr 1 · 12:55R. Skoropad—112911113O. Bolnyh—51111762
WMar 17 · 05:35R. Skoropad—1111153O. Bolnyh—99130
WMar 8 · 05:55R. Skoropad—1311711113O. Bolnyh—111311892
R. Skoropad10
WAug 13 · 10:55R. Skoropad1.17117118113A. Lanchut4.5081181192LAug 13 · 08:55V. Sydorchuk2.6311124113R. Skoropad1.440101191LAug 13 · 07:55R. Skoropad1.831111961O. Bolnyh1.8313811113LAug 13 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk1.441111113R. Skoropad2.634340WAug 13 · 05:25R. Skoropad1.36111111113M. Senyk3.00135371WAug 12 · 17:55O. Kulbach5.50111575102R. Skoropad1.138131111123WAug 12 · 15:55R. Skoropad1.3011119113A. Lanchut3.40471111WAug 12 · 14:25R. Skoropad1.331110117113M. Senyk3.2531251172LAug 12 · 12:25R. Skoropad1.33111161172V. Sydorchuk3.25139117113LAug 5 · 18:25R. Skoropad1.53861181P. Melnichuk2.3811118113
O. Bolnyh10
WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 08:55O. Bolnyh1.91511911113V. Sydorchuk1.8011911662LAug 30 · 07:25O. Bolnyh4.506970V. Ivanytskyi1.171111113LAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 13 · 07:55R. Skoropad1.831111961O. Bolnyh1.8313811113
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