TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12362730
Played Aug 5Finished
Ruslan Skoropad
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611118811––
Pavlo Melnichuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeRuslan Skoropad to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRuslan Skoropad above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ruslan Skoropad at 60.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Skoropad 3–1 Pavlo Melnichuk Pavlo Melnichuk has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skoropad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Skoropad
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skoropad 764 vs Melnichuk 722
Skoropad
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skoropad 20% vs Melnichuk 40%
Melnichuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skoropad 20% vs Melnichuk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skoropad +1 · Melnichuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skoropad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skoropad form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkoropad 1.53 / Melnichuk 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Skoropad)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12362730
Skoropad1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 31 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Melnichuk2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 17 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSkoropad3wins
AwayMelnichuk1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSkoropad leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkoropad100%3 of 3
AwayMelnichukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skoropad3Melnichuk1n = 4Skoropad took 3 of 4
S2Skoropad1Melnichuk3n = 4Melnichuk took 3 of 4
S3Skoropad2Melnichuk2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSkoropadMelnichukS − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.032.2+3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkoropadMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 103 vs 68 / 13051.5%52.3%53 / 103 vs 68 / 130Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkoropadSkoropad 1.53/Melnichuk 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Skoropad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LMay 20 · 11:05R. Skoropad—75100P. Melnichuk—1111123
WMay 13 · 10:55R. Skoropad—1111113P. Melnichuk—9460
WMay 12 · 18:55R. Skoropad—1161111113P. Melnichuk—91113852
WMar 8 · 10:25R. Skoropad—11611113P. Melnichuk—911731
R. Skoropad10
WAug 13 · 10:55R. Skoropad1.17117118113A. Lanchut4.5081181192LAug 13 · 08:55V. Sydorchuk2.6311124113R. Skoropad1.440101191LAug 13 · 07:55R. Skoropad1.831111961O. Bolnyh1.8313811113LAug 13 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk1.441111113R. Skoropad2.634340WAug 13 · 05:25R. Skoropad1.36111111113M. Senyk3.00135371WAug 12 · 17:55O. Kulbach5.50111575102R. Skoropad1.138131111123LAug 12 · 16:55R. Skoropad1.7311511432O. Bolnyh2.00911511113WAug 12 · 15:55R. Skoropad1.3011119113A. Lanchut3.40471111WAug 12 · 14:25R. Skoropad1.331110117113M. Senyk3.2531251172LAug 12 · 12:25R. Skoropad1.33111161172V. Sydorchuk3.25139117113
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
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