TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12415081
Played Aug 13Finished
Ruslan Skoropad
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113118911611––
Oleksandr Bolnyh
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Skoropad to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRuslan Skoropad above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 80 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ruslan Skoropad at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Skoropad 5–3 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bolnyh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Skoropad
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skoropad 735 vs Bolnyh 726
Skoropad
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skoropad 60% vs Bolnyh 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skoropad 50% vs Bolnyh 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skoropad -1 · Bolnyh -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skoropad)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkoropad 1.83 / Bolnyh 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skoropad)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12415081
Skoropad1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Bolnyh1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSkoropad5wins
AwayBolnyh3wins
6 of 8 to a deciderSkoropad leads 5–3, and 6 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkoropad75%3 of 4
AwayBolnyh50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skoropad4Bolnyh4n = 8split evenly
S2Skoropad1Bolnyh7n = 8Bolnyh took 7 of 8
S3Skoropad5Bolnyh3n = 8Skoropad took 5 of 8
S4Skoropad5Bolnyh1n = 6Skoropad took 5 of 6
S5Skoropad4Bolnyh2n = 6Skoropad took 4 of 6
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSkoropadBolnyhS − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.641.60.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkoropadBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 111 vs 68 / 15051.4%45.3%57 / 111 vs 68 / 150Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkoropadSkoropad 1.83/Bolnyh 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skoropad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bolnyh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 12 · 16:55R. Skoropad—11511432O. Bolnyh—911511113
LAug 5 · 15:25R. Skoropad—79111192O. Bolnyh—111196113
LMay 27 · 11:35R. Skoropad—8190O. Bolnyh—1111113
WMay 20 · 09:05R. Skoropad—891111113O. Bolnyh—11115762
WApr 2 · 04:25R. Skoropad—891111113O. Bolnyh—11117582
WApr 1 · 12:55R. Skoropad—112911113O. Bolnyh—51111762
WMar 17 · 05:35R. Skoropad—1111153O. Bolnyh—99130
WMar 8 · 05:55R. Skoropad—1311711113O. Bolnyh—111311892
R. Skoropad10
WAug 13 · 10:55R. Skoropad1.17117118113A. Lanchut4.5081181192LAug 13 · 08:55V. Sydorchuk2.6311124113R. Skoropad1.440101191LAug 13 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk1.441111113R. Skoropad2.634340WAug 13 · 05:25R. Skoropad1.36111111113M. Senyk3.00135371WAug 12 · 17:55O. Kulbach5.50111575102R. Skoropad1.138131111123LAug 12 · 16:55R. Skoropad1.7311511432O. Bolnyh2.00911511113WAug 12 · 15:55R. Skoropad1.3011119113A. Lanchut3.40471111WAug 12 · 14:25R. Skoropad1.331110117113M. Senyk3.2531251172LAug 12 · 12:25R. Skoropad1.33111161172V. Sydorchuk3.25139117113LAug 5 · 18:25R. Skoropad1.53861181P. Melnichuk2.3811118113
O. Bolnyh10
WSep 5 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.8011113123V. Sydorchuk1.918911101WSep 5 · 09:25O. Kulbach5.005940O. Bolnyh1.141111113WSep 5 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk1.835670O. Bolnyh1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:25O. Bolnyh1.4411116113M. Senyk2.63771181WSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WAug 30 · 10:25O. Bolnyh3.25117119113P. Chyzh1.3391191132WAug 30 · 08:55O. Bolnyh1.91511911113V. Sydorchuk1.8011911662LAug 30 · 07:25O. Bolnyh4.506970V. Ivanytskyi1.171111113LAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 12 · 16:55R. Skoropad1.7311511432O. Bolnyh2.00911511113
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