TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12414846
Played Aug 13Finished
Ruslan Skoropad
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118711118811119
Andrii Lanchut
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeRuslan Skoropad to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Skoropad above · Andrii Lanchut below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ruslan Skoropad at 79.4%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Skoropad 4–0 Andrii Lanchut Andrii Lanchut has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Skoropad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Skoropad
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skoropad 711 vs Lanchut 334
Skoropad
Correct
both rated, 377 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skoropad 40% vs Lanchut 0%
Skoropad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skoropad 40% vs Lanchut 10%
Skoropad
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skoropad -3 · Lanchut -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Skoropad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lanchut form (0%) is below what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkoropad 1.17 / Lanchut 4.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Skoropad)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12414846
Skoropad1.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 35 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Lanchut4.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog5% won 1 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSkoropad4wins
AwayLanchut0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderSkoropad leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkoropad100%4 of 4
AwayLanchutn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skoropad4Lanchut0n = 4Skoropad took 4 of 4
S2Skoropad2Lanchut2n = 4split evenly
S3Skoropad1Lanchut3n = 4Lanchut took 3 of 4
S4Skoropad3Lanchut1n = 4Skoropad took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSkoropadLanchutS − LBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match46.836.5+10.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkoropadLanchutBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 114 vs 6 / 7550.9%8%58 / 114 vs 6 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.00.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.429.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkoropadSkoropad 1.17/Lanchut 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Skoropad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skoropad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 13 · 10:55R. Skoropad—117118113A. Lanchut—81181192
WAug 12 · 15:55R. Skoropad—11119113A. Lanchut—471111
WOct 17 · 12:25R. Skoropad—128911113A. Lanchut—101111362
WOct 6 · 12:25R. Skoropad—111311113A. Lanchut—5111361
R. Skoropad10
LAug 13 · 08:55V. Sydorchuk2.6311124113R. Skoropad1.440101191LAug 13 · 07:55R. Skoropad1.831111961O. Bolnyh1.8313811113LAug 13 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk1.441111113R. Skoropad2.634340WAug 13 · 05:25R. Skoropad1.36111111113M. Senyk3.00135371WAug 12 · 17:55O. Kulbach5.50111575102R. Skoropad1.138131111123LAug 12 · 16:55R. Skoropad1.7311511432O. Bolnyh2.00911511113WAug 12 · 15:55R. Skoropad1.3011119113A. Lanchut3.40471111WAug 12 · 14:25R. Skoropad1.331110117113M. Senyk3.2531251172LAug 12 · 12:25R. Skoropad1.33111161172V. Sydorchuk3.25139117113LAug 5 · 18:25R. Skoropad1.53861181P. Melnichuk2.3811118113
A. Lanchut10
LSep 5 · 10:55A. Lanchut3.407970M. Senyk1.301111113WSep 5 · 08:55M. Kornijchuk1.20681141A. Lanchut4.3311117113LSep 5 · 07:55A. Lanchut6.00115661V. Sydorchuk1.1191111113LSep 5 · 06:55O. Kulbach1.73118911113A. Lanchut2.0081111872LSep 5 · 05:25A. Lanchut8.00781171O. Bolnyh1.0611119113WSep 1 · 11:35A. Lanchut4.501114113M. Senyk1.1771280WSep 1 · 09:35O. Kulbach1.57121379102A. Lanchut2.2510111111123LSep 1 · 07:35B. Pyrtyk1.1011115113A. Lanchut6.50241161LSep 1 · 06:35A. Lanchut7.0011581152V. Sydorchuk1.08811119113LAug 12 · 15:55R. Skoropad1.3011119113A. Lanchut3.40471111
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