TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466957
Played Aug 21Finished
Anatolii Nikolenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111513811511––
Oleh Martynenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nikolenko to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Oleh Martynenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 82 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Anatolii Nikolenko at 54.2%
82 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 4–7 Oleh Martynenko Anatolii Nikolenko has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:52What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nikolenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Martynenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1059 vs Martynenko 899
Nikolenko
Wrong
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 80% vs Martynenko 60%
Nikolenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 80% vs Martynenko 40%
Nikolenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko +4 · Martynenko -2
Nikolenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Nikolenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nikolenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 1.73 / Martynenko 2.00
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Nikolenko)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12466957
Nikolenko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 92 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Martynenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 21 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko4wins
AwayMartynenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMartynenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko40%2 of 5
AwayMartynenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko5Martynenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Nikolenko3Martynenko7n = 10Martynenko took 7 of 10
S3Nikolenko3Martynenko7n = 10Martynenko took 7 of 10
S4Nikolenko4Martynenko5n = 9Martynenko took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoMartynenkoN − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.539.8−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoMartynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 690 vs 150 / 34047.5%44.1%328 / 690 vs 150 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NikolenkoNikolenko 1.73/Martynenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Nikolenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Martynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 23 · 08:55A. Nikolenko—611981O. Martynenko—11211113
LJul 22 · 17:55A. Nikolenko—126941O. Martynenko—101111113
LJul 16 · 11:25A. Nikolenko—119851O. Martynenko—31111113
WJul 7 · 07:05A. Nikolenko—61111113O. Martynenko—117561
LJun 22 · 07:55A. Nikolenko—1187151O. Martynenko—71111173
WJun 20 · 05:25A. Nikolenko—198411113O. Martynenko—171111622
WJun 10 · 13:55A. Nikolenko—711111113O. Martynenko—11811982
LOct 9 · 06:55A. Nikolenko—9611121O. Martynenko—11117143
LSep 3 · 07:25A. Nikolenko—4580O. Martynenko—1111113
WAug 15 · 10:55A. Nikolenko—11312123O. Martynenko—81110101
A. Nikolenko10
WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2.637370V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113LSep 3 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.36111116113A. Nikolenko3.00471841LSep 2 · 17:55M. Treschetka1.731112123A. Nikolenko2.00910100LSep 2 · 16:55A. Nikolenko3.00155331O. Maslovskyi1.36131111113LSep 2 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.6371111862V. Ivanytskyi1.44117811113LSep 2 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.80911761Y. Melnyk1.9111211113LSep 2 · 12:25A. Nikolenko1.73171191142M. Dunas2.00198118113
O. Martynenko10
LAug 22 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.3351111792B. Pyrtyk3.25114711113LAug 22 · 08:55O. Martynenko1.7311117732A. Nikolenko2.00751111113LAug 22 · 07:25O. Martynenko1.4410970V. Sydorchuk2.631211113WAug 22 · 05:55O. Martynenko2.201111143Y. Shcherbak1.6188120LAug 22 · 04:25O. Martynenko3.757880V. Ivanytskyi1.251111113LAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153LAug 21 · 16:25Y. Shcherbak1.9161111113O. Martynenko1.80116751LAug 21 · 15:25O. Martynenko1.28211961V. Sydorchuk3.5011711113LAug 21 · 12:55O. Martynenko3.2561070V. Ivanytskyi1.331112113LAug 18 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.251111113O. Martynenko1.578990
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