TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472021
Played Aug 22Finished
Oleh Martynenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117115711711311
Anatolii Nikolenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nikolenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Martynenko above · Anatolii Nikolenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 84 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Anatolii Nikolenko at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Martynenko 7–4 Anatolii Nikolenko Anatolii Nikolenko has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Martynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Martynenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martynenko 825 vs Nikolenko 1033
Nikolenko
Correct
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martynenko 20% vs Nikolenko 80%
Nikolenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martynenko 30% vs Nikolenko 70%
Nikolenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martynenko -1 · Nikolenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Nikolenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nikolenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartynenko 1.73 / Nikolenko 2.00
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Nikolenko)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472021
Martynenko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite39% won 27 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it65% 20 of 31
Nikolenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 40 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartynenko6wins
AwayNikolenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMartynenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartynenko60%3 of 5
AwayNikolenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martynenko5Nikolenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Martynenko7Nikolenko3n = 10Martynenko took 7 of 10
S3Martynenko7Nikolenko3n = 10Martynenko took 7 of 10
S4Martynenko5Nikolenko4n = 9Martynenko took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartynenkoNikolenkoM − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.836.5+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartynenkoNikolenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 349 vs 333 / 69943.6%47.6%152 / 349 vs 333 / 699Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NikolenkoMartynenko 1.73/Nikolenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.3%
Nikolenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nikolenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 08:55O. Martynenko—11211113A. Nikolenko—611981
WJul 22 · 17:55O. Martynenko—101111113A. Nikolenko—126941
WJul 16 · 11:25O. Martynenko—31111113A. Nikolenko—119851
LJul 7 · 07:05O. Martynenko—117561A. Nikolenko—61111113
WJun 22 · 07:55O. Martynenko—71111173A. Nikolenko—1187151
LJun 20 · 05:25O. Martynenko—171111622A. Nikolenko—198411113
LJun 10 · 13:55O. Martynenko—11811982A. Nikolenko—711111113
WOct 9 · 06:55O. Martynenko—11117143A. Nikolenko—9611121
WSep 3 · 07:25O. Martynenko—1111113A. Nikolenko—4580
LAug 15 · 10:55O. Martynenko—81110101A. Nikolenko—11312123
O. Martynenko10
LAug 22 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.3351111792B. Pyrtyk3.25114711113LAug 22 · 07:25O. Martynenko1.4410970V. Sydorchuk2.631211113WAug 22 · 05:55O. Martynenko2.201111143Y. Shcherbak1.6188120LAug 22 · 04:25O. Martynenko3.757880V. Ivanytskyi1.251111113LAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153LAug 21 · 16:25Y. Shcherbak1.9161111113O. Martynenko1.80116751LAug 21 · 15:25O. Martynenko1.28211961V. Sydorchuk3.5011711113WAug 21 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.73815851O. Martynenko2.00111311113LAug 21 · 12:55O. Martynenko3.2561070V. Ivanytskyi1.331112113LAug 18 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.251111113O. Martynenko1.578990
A. Nikolenko10
WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2.637370V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113LSep 3 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.36111116113A. Nikolenko3.00471841LSep 2 · 17:55M. Treschetka1.731112123A. Nikolenko2.00910100LSep 2 · 16:55A. Nikolenko3.00155331O. Maslovskyi1.36131111113LSep 2 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.6371111862V. Ivanytskyi1.44117811113LSep 2 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.80911761Y. Melnyk1.9111211113LAug 21 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.73815851O. Martynenko2.00111311113
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