TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466995
Played Aug 21Finished
Yuriy Shcherbak
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611116117115––
Oleh Martynenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYuriy Shcherbak above · Oleh Martynenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 68 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Yuriy Shcherbak 6–2 Oleh Martynenko Oleh Martynenko has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Martynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 875 vs Martynenko 881
Martynenko
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Martynenko 40%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 50% vs Martynenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -1 · Martynenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martynenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.91 / Martynenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shcherbak)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #12466995
Shcherbak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 21 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Martynenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite40% won 27 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeShcherbak6wins
AwayMartynenko2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderShcherbak leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak100%6 of 6
AwayMartynenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak6Martynenko2n = 8Shcherbak took 6 of 8
S2Shcherbak4Martynenko4n = 8split evenly
S3Shcherbak3Martynenko5n = 8Martynenko took 5 of 8
S4Shcherbak3Martynenko1n = 4Shcherbak took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricShcherbakMartynenkoS − MBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.531.5+5.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakMartynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 230 vs 151 / 34253.9%44.2%124 / 230 vs 151 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.035.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.91/Martynenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 18 · 08:25Y. Shcherbak—9880O. Martynenko—1111113
WAug 17 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak—11117113O. Martynenko—461161
WAug 15 · 07:25Y. Shcherbak—113116113O. Martynenko—41171172
WAug 14 · 14:55Y. Shcherbak—11115123O. Martynenko—9811101
WJul 23 · 07:25Y. Shcherbak—1151011113O. Martynenko—51112612
WJul 22 · 14:55Y. Shcherbak—1111113O. Martynenko—5860
WJul 16 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak—1411113O. Martynenko—12260
LJul 7 · 09:05Y. Shcherbak—91640O. Martynenko—1118113
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
O. Martynenko10
LAug 22 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.3351111792B. Pyrtyk3.25114711113LAug 22 · 08:55O. Martynenko1.7311117732A. Nikolenko2.00751111113LAug 22 · 07:25O. Martynenko1.4410970V. Sydorchuk2.631211113WAug 22 · 05:55O. Martynenko2.201111143Y. Shcherbak1.6188120LAug 22 · 04:25O. Martynenko3.757880V. Ivanytskyi1.251111113LAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153LAug 21 · 15:25O. Martynenko1.28211961V. Sydorchuk3.5011711113WAug 21 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.73815851O. Martynenko2.00111311113LAug 21 · 12:55O. Martynenko3.2561070V. Ivanytskyi1.331112113LAug 18 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.251111113O. Martynenko1.578990
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