TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472019
Played Aug 22Finished
Oleh Martynenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181412––––
Yuriy Shcherbak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeYuriy Shcherbak to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Martynenko above · Yuriy Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 64 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Yuriy Shcherbak at 62.7%
64 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Martynenko 2–7 Yuriy Shcherbak Oleh Martynenko has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martynenko 842 vs Shcherbak 893
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martynenko 20% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martynenko 40% vs Shcherbak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martynenko -4 · Shcherbak +1
Martynenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martynenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartynenko 2.20 / Shcherbak 1.61
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Shcherbak)+5.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472019
Martynenko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 22 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Shcherbak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite77% won 79 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it91% 61 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMartynenko2wins
AwayShcherbak7wins
2 of 9 to a deciderShcherbak leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartynenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayShcherbak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martynenko3Shcherbak6n = 9Shcherbak took 6 of 9
S2Martynenko4Shcherbak5n = 9Shcherbak took 5 of 9
S3Martynenko5Shcherbak4n = 9Martynenko took 5 of 9
S4Martynenko1Shcherbak4n = 5Shcherbak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricMartynenkoShcherbakM − SBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match31.236.8−5.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartynenkoShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 345 vs 126 / 23343.8%54.1%151 / 345 vs 126 / 233Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.035.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakMartynenko 2.20/Shcherbak 1.61
Miss
What we said
62.7%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Martynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 21 · 16:25O. Martynenko—116751Y. Shcherbak—61111113
WAug 18 · 08:25O. Martynenko—1111113Y. Shcherbak—9880
LAug 17 · 13:55O. Martynenko—461161Y. Shcherbak—11117113
LAug 15 · 07:25O. Martynenko—41171172Y. Shcherbak—113116113
LAug 14 · 14:55O. Martynenko—9811101Y. Shcherbak—11115123
LJul 23 · 07:25O. Martynenko—51112612Y. Shcherbak—1151011113
LJul 22 · 14:55O. Martynenko—5860Y. Shcherbak—1111113
LJul 16 · 09:55O. Martynenko—12260Y. Shcherbak—1411113
WJul 7 · 09:05O. Martynenko—1118113Y. Shcherbak—91640
O. Martynenko10
LAug 22 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.3351111792B. Pyrtyk3.25114711113LAug 22 · 08:55O. Martynenko1.7311117732A. Nikolenko2.00751111113LAug 22 · 07:25O. Martynenko1.4410970V. Sydorchuk2.631211113LAug 22 · 04:25O. Martynenko3.757880V. Ivanytskyi1.251111113LAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153LAug 21 · 16:25Y. Shcherbak1.9161111113O. Martynenko1.80116751LAug 21 · 15:25O. Martynenko1.28211961V. Sydorchuk3.5011711113WAug 21 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.73815851O. Martynenko2.00111311113LAug 21 · 12:55O. Martynenko3.2561070V. Ivanytskyi1.331112113LAug 18 · 10:25P. Melnichuk2.251111113O. Martynenko1.578990
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 21 · 16:25Y. Shcherbak1.9161111113O. Martynenko1.80116751
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