TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12435677
Played Aug 15Finished
Yuriy Shcherbak
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711711––––
Illia Fokin
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 89.3% is still 89.3%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
89.3%
89.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYuriy Shcherbak above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Illia Fokin at 89.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Yuriy Shcherbak 4–16 Illia Fokin Yuriy Shcherbak has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-16 in 20
Fokin
Correct
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 850 vs Fokin 1039
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 40% vs Fokin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 40% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -1 · Fokin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 94% — Strong (leans Fokin) · live re-read · sealed at 89% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 4.33 / Fokin 1.20
Signal prob.6% / 94%
Edge (Fokin)+15.8pp
Setka Cup · #12435677
Shcherbak4.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog25% won 20 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back10% 6 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Fokin1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 62 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it69% 47 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak1wins
AwayFokin9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFokin88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak1Fokin9n = 10Fokin took 9 of 10
S2Shcherbak1Fokin9n = 10Fokin took 9 of 10
S3Shcherbak2Fokin8n = 10Fokin took 8 of 10
S4Shcherbak1Fokin3n = 4Fokin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakFokinS − FBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match27.637.6−10.0per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 217 vs 122 / 23353.5%52.4%116 / 217 vs 122 / 233Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinShcherbak 4.33/Fokin 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
94.1%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak—9770I. Fokin—1111113
LAug 14 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak—6960I. Fokin—1111113
LAug 11 · 10:25Y. Shcherbak—51050I. Fokin—1112113
LAug 10 · 13:25Y. Shcherbak—10790I. Fokin—1211113
LJul 23 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak—611671I. Fokin—11811113
LJul 22 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak—108110I. Fokin—1211133
LJul 16 · 04:25Y. Shcherbak—591191I. Fokin—11117113
LJul 7 · 04:35Y. Shcherbak—117751I. Fokin—91111113
WJun 12 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak—691111143I. Fokin—111197122
LJun 11 · 18:55Y. Shcherbak—4440I. Fokin—1111113
Y. Shcherbak10
LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133WAug 29 · 15:55Y. Shcherbak1.201111113O. Bolnyh4.335480WAug 29 · 14:25Y. Shcherbak2.101314113P. Chyzh1.67111270WAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
I. Fokin10
WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123WAug 19 · 13:55I. Fokin1.9111911113M. Dunas1.80711781WAug 19 · 12:55D. Belanchik1.73771113122I. Fokin2.001111311143
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