TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457129
Played Aug 19Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911117118––
Mykhailo Dunas
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Dunas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Mykhailo Dunas below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Mykhailo Dunas at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:04What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dunas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1055 vs Dunas 1163
Dunas
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 60% vs Dunas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 60% vs Dunas 40%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin +2 · Dunas +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dunas)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.91 / Dunas 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dunas)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12457129
Fokin1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 36 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Dunas1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinDunasBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 234 vs 5 / 1452.6%35.7%123 / 234 vs 5 / 14Avg sets wonper match2.11.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.331.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DunasFokin 1.91/Dunas 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dunas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fokin won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
I. Fokin10
WAug 21 · 18:25O. Martynenko2.109640I. Fokin1.67111153WAug 21 · 17:25V. Sydorchuk3.755640I. Fokin1.251111113WAug 21 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.618131051I. Fokin2.2011111293WAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73111071152I. Fokin2.00912114113LAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak4.50712511133I. Fokin1.171110119112LAug 19 · 18:55I. Fokin2.009680A. Nikolenko1.731111113LAug 19 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak1.5711511113I. Fokin2.25811431WAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.911091111102I. Fokin1.80121158123WAug 19 · 12:55D. Belanchik1.73771113122I. Fokin2.001111311143WAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak4.339770I. Fokin1.201111113
M. Dunas10
LSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113LSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113WSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113LSep 3 · 04:25M. Dunas1.5011119692V. Ivanytskyi2.40041111113WSep 2 · 18:55O. Maslovskyi2.00241181M. Dunas1.7311119113WSep 2 · 17:25M. Dunas1.671112113V. Ivanytskyi2.1081070LSep 2 · 15:25Y. Melnyk1.801111113M. Dunas1.916860LSep 2 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.8351111113M. Dunas1.83119421WSep 2 · 12:25A. Nikolenko1.73171191142M. Dunas2.00198118113
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