TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12444186
Played Aug 17Finished
Martin Novak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911411––––
Tomas Regner
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Novak above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 52 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Martin Novak at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Martin Novak 1–1 Tomas Regner Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:32What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Novak 1550 vs Regner 1454
Novak
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Regner 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 40% vs Regner 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -3 · Regner -2
Novak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.80 / Regner 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novak)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12444186
Novak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 18 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Regner1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 126 of 269
Down 0–1, comes back28% 40 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNovak1wins
AwayRegner1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricNovakRegnerN − RBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match30.034.5−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 47 vs 488 / 97968.1%49.9%32 / 47 vs 488 / 979Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.80/Regner 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 14 · 23:00M. Novak—12311113T. Regner—1011781
LJun 30 · 22:30M. Novak—9860T. Regner—1111113
M. Novak10
LSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961LSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113LSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava2.2014616113M. Novak1.6112111471LSep 6 · 23:30R. Hasmanda1.8311811113M. Novak1.83411661WSep 6 · 22:30M. Novak1.571111113P. Bruzek2.256630WAug 18 · 01:30M. Novak1.5711711113O. Vitrovyj2.25211591LAug 18 · 24:30J. Didi1.57111188113M. Novak2.2597111182LAug 17 · 23:30R. Bartunek1.441111113M. Novak2.635560LJul 23 · 02:59O. Kucirek1.91512911113M. Novak1.80111011662LJul 23 · 02:00M. Novak1.618840R. Hasmanda2.201111113
T. Regner10
LSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 01:30T. Regner2.008560R. Bartunek1.731111113LSep 1 · 24:30O. Kucirek1.7311811113T. Regner2.00511651WAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 31 · 22:30T. Regner2.2511113113J. Didi1.57921171LAug 31 · 21:00T. Regner1.57111112862O. Fejtek2.259131011113LAug 31 · 20:30T. Regner2.257860J. Didi1.571111113WAug 31 · 19:00T. Regner2.201111113O. Fejtek1.617270LAug 31 · 18:30J. Steffan1.5711115113T. Regner2.25771191LAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113
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