TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13054135
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117511119––
Tomas Regner
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:58 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jan Steffan at 61.2%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 28–15 Tomas Regner Tomas Regner has won 15 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Steffan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-15 in 43
Steffan
Correct
gap of 13 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1471 vs Regner 1490
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 60% vs Regner 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 40% vs Regner 60%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan +1 · Regner -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Steffan) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.57 / Regner 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Steffan)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13054135
Steffan1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 132 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 67 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it80% 105 of 131
Regner2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 125 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back28% 39 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan7wins
AwayRegner3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSteffan leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan75%6 of 8
AwayRegnern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan8Regner2n = 10Steffan took 8 of 10
S2Steffan5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Steffan3Regner7n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S4Steffan9Regner1n = 10Steffan took 9 of 10
S5Steffan1Regner2n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanRegnerS − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.139.2+2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 957 vs 483 / 96748.2%50%461 / 957 vs 483 / 967Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanSteffan 1.57/Regner 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 03:29J. Steffan—581181T. Regner—11116113
WAug 2 · 01:00J. Steffan—12116113T. Regner—1091111
WJul 31 · 01:30J. Steffan—12116113T. Regner—1061161
LJul 28 · 22:30J. Steffan—119111142T. Regner—711139113
WJul 26 · 22:30J. Steffan—41311113T. Regner—1111571
LJul 15 · 02:00J. Steffan—114111182T. Regner—911136113
WJul 12 · 23:30J. Steffan—11127113T. Regner—9101141
WJun 28 · 22:00J. Steffan—117811113T. Regner—91111772
WJun 22 · 19:00J. Steffan—121111133T. Regner—10136111
WJun 19 · 01:00J. Steffan—11118133T. Regner—4911111
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113WSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113
T. Regner10
LSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 01:30T. Regner2.008560R. Bartunek1.731111113LSep 1 · 24:30O. Kucirek1.7311811113T. Regner2.00511651WAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 31 · 22:30T. Regner2.2511113113J. Didi1.57921171LAug 31 · 21:00T. Regner1.57111112862O. Fejtek2.259131011113LAug 31 · 20:30T. Regner2.257860J. Didi1.571111113WAug 31 · 19:00T. Regner2.201111113O. Fejtek1.617270LAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:00M. Stefek1.917550T. Regner1.801111113
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