TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077412
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukas Malek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1198111012211––
Jan Steffan
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Malek above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 74 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Jan Steffan at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Malek 21–37 Jan Steffan Lukas Malek has won 21 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:57What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Steffan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-37 in 58
Steffan
Correct
gap of 16 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malek 1494 vs Steffan 1459
Malek
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malek 40% vs Steffan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malek 70% vs Steffan 40%
Malek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malek +1 · Steffan -3
Steffan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Steffan) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalek 2.25 / Steffan 1.57
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Steffan)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13077412
Malek2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 19 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Steffan1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 135 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it81% 107 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalek3wins
AwaySteffan7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSteffan leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalek60%3 of 5
AwaySteffan100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malek5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S2Malek1Steffan9n = 10Steffan took 9 of 10
S3Malek2Steffan8n = 10Steffan took 8 of 10
S4Malek1Steffan4n = 5Steffan took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalekSteffanM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.337.8−5.5per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalekSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 399 vs 463 / 96148.9%48.2%195 / 399 vs 463 / 961Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanMalek 2.25/Steffan 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek—1181021J. Steffan—91112113
WSep 4 · 10:30L. Malek—111111123J. Steffan—7136101
LAug 4 · 13:30L. Malek—61060J. Steffan—1112113
LAug 4 · 10:00L. Malek—7950J. Steffan—1111113
LMay 15 · 10:30L. Malek—1112731J. Steffan—41411113
WMay 13 · 06:30L. Malek—119118113J. Steffan—31191182
LMay 7 · 11:30L. Malek—3590J. Steffan—1111113
WMay 2 · 07:30L. Malek—1111109113J. Steffan—74121192
LApr 24 · 12:59L. Malek—87160J. Steffan—1111183
LApr 24 · 11:30L. Malek—10650J. Steffan—1211113
L. Malek10
WSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:30F. Jungman1.5311811113L. Malek2.38711791WSep 4 · 12:00D. Parhomenko1.441112661L. Malek2.6371411113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971WSep 4 · 10:30L. Malek3.00111111123J. Steffan1.367136101LSep 1 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.2511211113L. Malek3.751110861LSep 1 · 12:00L. Malek3.008590D. Parhomenko1.361111113WSep 1 · 11:30J. Plachy1.446840L. Malek2.631111113
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113LSep 4 · 10:30L. Malek3.00111111123J. Steffan1.367136101
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