TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052765
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukas Malek
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511911––––
Dmitro Parhomenko
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeDmitro Parhomenko to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Malek above · Dmitro Parhomenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Dmitro Parhomenko at 57.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Malek 28–21 Dmitro Parhomenko Dmitro Parhomenko has won 21 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Parhomenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-21 in 49
Malek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malek 1519 vs Parhomenko 1510
Malek
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malek 100% vs Parhomenko 40%
Malek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malek 80% vs Parhomenko 50%
Malek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malek +5 · Parhomenko -1
Malek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Parhomenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parhomenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalek 3.00 / Parhomenko 1.36
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Parhomenko)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13052765
Malek3.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 22 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Parhomenko1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 182 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it94% 93 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it78% 126 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalek5wins
AwayParhomenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalek100%4 of 4
AwayParhomenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malek4Parhomenko6n = 10Parhomenko took 6 of 10
S2Malek6Parhomenko4n = 10Malek took 6 of 10
S3Malek4Parhomenko6n = 10Parhomenko took 6 of 10
S4Malek1Parhomenko2n = 3Parhomenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalekParhomenkoM − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match27.532.1−4.6per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalekParhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 393 vs 700 / 142849.1%49%193 / 393 vs 700 / 1428Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParhomenkoMalek 3.00/Parhomenko 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.4%
Parhomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Parhomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 11 · 13:00L. Malek—21050D. Parhomenko—1112113
LMar 6 · 09:00L. Malek—511341D. Parhomenko—11911113
LJan 16 · 11:30L. Malek—1570D. Parhomenko—1111113
LDec 10 · 14:30L. Malek—11560D. Parhomenko—1311113
WDec 10 · 11:30L. Malek—1111113D. Parhomenko—9780
WNov 29 · 14:00L. Malek—11115113D. Parhomenko—741181
WNov 29 · 12:30L. Malek—1111113D. Parhomenko—3830
WNov 28 · 14:30L. Malek—311116113D. Parhomenko—11791192
LNov 28 · 11:30L. Malek—6760D. Parhomenko—1111113
WNov 12 · 14:00L. Malek—1112123D. Parhomenko—910100
L. Malek10
WSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:30F. Jungman1.5311811113L. Malek2.38711791LSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113WSep 4 · 12:00D. Parhomenko1.441112661L. Malek2.6371411113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971WSep 4 · 10:30L. Malek3.00111111123J. Steffan1.367136101LSep 1 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.2511211113L. Malek3.751110861WSep 1 · 11:30J. Plachy1.446840L. Malek2.631111113
D. Parhomenko10
LSep 4 · 16:58J. Prokupek1.50581111113D. Parhomenko2.5011117582LSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191LSep 4 · 15:00J. Prokupek2.001111113D. Parhomenko1.739990LSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.107740J. Plachy1.67111142LSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.007780F. Just1.701111113LSep 4 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.541010111292M. Kolar2.181212710113LSep 4 · 12:00D. Parhomenko1.441112661L. Malek2.6371411113WSep 4 · 11:30J. Steffan3.009640D. Parhomenko1.361111113WSep 4 · 10:00D. Parhomenko1.73111011113M. Kolar2.00412851WSep 1 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.2511211113L. Malek3.751110861
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