TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071401
Played Sep 4Finished
Dmitro Parhomenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171214611611––
Lukas Malek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Malek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitro Parhomenko above · Lukas Malek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 78 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Malek at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Dmitro Parhomenko 21–28 Lukas Malek Dmitro Parhomenko has won 21 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:37What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Parhomenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-28 in 49
Malek
Correct
gap of 7 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parhomenko 1603 vs Malek 1498
Parhomenko
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parhomenko 80% vs Malek 40%
Parhomenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parhomenko 90% vs Malek 70%
Parhomenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Parhomenko +2 · Malek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Parhomenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parhomenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParhomenko 1.44 / Malek 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Parhomenko)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071401
Parhomenko1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 192 of 307
Up 2–0, closes it93% 97 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it79% 132 of 168
Malek2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 19 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParhomenko5wins
AwayMalek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParhomenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayMalek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parhomenko6Malek4n = 10Parhomenko took 6 of 10
S2Parhomenko4Malek6n = 10Malek took 6 of 10
S3Parhomenko6Malek4n = 10Parhomenko took 6 of 10
S4Parhomenko2Malek1n = 3Parhomenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricParhomenkoMalekP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.127.5+4.6per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParhomenkoMalekBasisWin rate · lifetime705 / 1429 vs 195 / 39849.3%49%705 / 1429 vs 195 / 398Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParhomenkoParhomenko 1.44/Malek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Parhomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Malek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 11 · 13:00D. Parhomenko—1112113L. Malek—21050
WMar 6 · 09:00D. Parhomenko—11911113L. Malek—511341
WJan 16 · 11:30D. Parhomenko—1111113L. Malek—1570
WDec 10 · 14:30D. Parhomenko—1311113L. Malek—11560
LDec 10 · 11:30D. Parhomenko—9780L. Malek—1111113
LNov 29 · 14:00D. Parhomenko—741181L. Malek—11115113
LNov 29 · 12:30D. Parhomenko—3830L. Malek—1111113
LNov 28 · 14:30D. Parhomenko—11791192L. Malek—311116113
WNov 28 · 11:30D. Parhomenko—1111113L. Malek—6760
LNov 12 · 14:00D. Parhomenko—910100L. Malek—1112123
D. Parhomenko10
LSep 4 · 16:58J. Prokupek1.50581111113D. Parhomenko2.5011117582LSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191LSep 4 · 15:00J. Prokupek2.001111113D. Parhomenko1.739990LSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.107740J. Plachy1.67111142LSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.007780F. Just1.701111113LSep 4 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.541010111292M. Kolar2.181212710113WSep 4 · 11:30J. Steffan3.009640D. Parhomenko1.361111113WSep 4 · 10:00D. Parhomenko1.73111011113M. Kolar2.00412851LSep 3 · 03:30D. Parhomenko2.0277120P. Fojt1.701111143WSep 3 · 02:30P. Fojt1.80111110472D. Parhomenko1.91891211113
L. Malek10
WSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:30F. Jungman1.5311811113L. Malek2.38711791LSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971WSep 4 · 10:30L. Malek3.00111111123J. Steffan1.367136101LSep 1 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.2511211113L. Malek3.751110861LSep 1 · 12:00L. Malek3.008590D. Parhomenko1.361111113WSep 1 · 11:30J. Plachy1.446840L. Malek2.631111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Parhomenko
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L. Malek
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