TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071823
Played Sep 4Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311115511119––
Dmitro Parhomenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Dmitro Parhomenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 19–24 Dmitro Parhomenko Radim Pavelka has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:58What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-24 in 43
Parhomenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1586 vs Parhomenko 1503
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Parhomenko 0%
Pavelka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Parhomenko 40%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -1 · Parhomenko -5
Parhomenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parhomenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.73 / Parhomenko 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Pavelka)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071823
Pavelka1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 103 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it76% 73 of 96
Parhomenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 154 of 364
Down 0–1, comes back24% 47 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka8wins
AwayParhomenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka100%6 of 6
AwayParhomenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka6Parhomenko4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S2Pavelka7Parhomenko3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S3Pavelka5Parhomenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Pavelka6Parhomenko3n = 9Pavelka took 6 of 9
S5Pavelka3Parhomenko1n = 4Pavelka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaParhomenkoPavelka − ParhomenkoBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.137.2+5.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaParhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 884 vs 705 / 143550.7%49.1%448 / 884 vs 705 / 1435Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.73/Parhomenko 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.1%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka—13115113D. Parhomenko—1151191
WAug 3 · 01:00R. Pavelka—14114113D. Parhomenko—1261191
WJul 27 · 20:00R. Pavelka—111185133D. Parhomenko—581111112
LJul 26 · 19:00R. Pavelka—101111872D. Parhomenko—126511113
WJul 26 · 24:30R. Pavelka—571111113D. Parhomenko—11114642
WJul 10 · 06:00R. Pavelka—111110113D. Parhomenko—841261
LJun 27 · 09:28R. Pavelka—51112121D. Parhomenko—111310143
WJun 27 · 06:00R. Pavelka—1111113D. Parhomenko—5620
WJun 24 · 19:30R. Pavelka—71111113D. Parhomenko—119951
WJun 20 · 06:00R. Pavelka—1181411113D. Parhomenko—91116822
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930LSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760
D. Parhomenko10
LSep 4 · 16:58J. Prokupek1.50581111113D. Parhomenko2.5011117582LSep 4 · 15:00J. Prokupek2.001111113D. Parhomenko1.739990LSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.107740J. Plachy1.67111142LSep 4 · 14:30D. Parhomenko2.007780F. Just1.701111113LSep 4 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.541010111292M. Kolar2.181212710113LSep 4 · 12:00D. Parhomenko1.441112661L. Malek2.6371411113WSep 4 · 11:30J. Steffan3.009640D. Parhomenko1.361111113WSep 4 · 10:00D. Parhomenko1.73111011113M. Kolar2.00412851LSep 3 · 03:30D. Parhomenko2.0277120P. Fojt1.701111143WSep 3 · 02:30P. Fojt1.80111110472D. Parhomenko1.91891211113
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