TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081984
Played Sep 6Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161513611112––
Jaroslav Prokupek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Prokupek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 75 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Jaroslav Prokupek at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 44–49 Jaroslav Prokupek Radim Pavelka has won 44 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:58What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-49 in 93
Prokupek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1567 vs Prokupek 1487
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Prokupek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 50% vs Prokupek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -2 · Prokupek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.67 / Prokupek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Pavelka)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081984
Pavelka1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 103 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it76% 73 of 96
Prokupek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 100 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back17% 20 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka7wins
AwayProkupek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka100%5 of 5
AwayProkupek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka5Prokupek5n = 10split evenly
S2Pavelka8Prokupek2n = 10Pavelka took 8 of 10
S3Pavelka7Prokupek3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S4Pavelka5Prokupek1n = 6Pavelka took 5 of 6
S5Pavelka2Prokupek3n = 5Prokupek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaProkupekPavelka − ProkupekBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.132.4+9.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 883 vs 640 / 134550.5%47.6%446 / 883 vs 640 / 1345Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.67/Prokupek 2.10
Hit
What we said
59%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 5 · 08:30R. Pavelka—11101112113J. Prokupek—21291492
WJun 20 · 09:30R. Pavelka—1111113J. Prokupek—6650
WJun 20 · 07:30R. Pavelka—81111113J. Prokupek—113741
LJun 18 · 16:30R. Pavelka—611101192J. Prokupek—113125113
LJun 5 · 06:00R. Pavelka—31191192J. Prokupek—118117113
WJun 4 · 01:00R. Pavelka—1111113J. Prokupek—8450
WMay 26 · 16:58R. Pavelka—1111113J. Prokupek—5930
LMay 26 · 16:00R. Pavelka—9111111132J. Prokupek—111395153
WMay 24 · 19:30R. Pavelka—1111113J. Prokupek—5840
WMay 14 · 17:00R. Pavelka—911611113J. Prokupek—11911562
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191LSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760
J. Prokupek10
WSep 7 · 06:30J. Plachy1.837880J. Prokupek1.831111113LSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91611681J. Dedek1.8011311113WSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741LSep 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.801111113J. Prokupek1.916750WSep 6 · 24:30J. Prokupek1.5031111113P. Fojt2.50116461LSep 5 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.0061171182V. Postelt1.73114118113LSep 5 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk2.10111114113J. Prokupek1.671381211WSep 4 · 16:58J. Prokupek1.50581111113D. Parhomenko2.5011117582LSep 4 · 16:30J. Prokupek3.104770F. Just1.301111113
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