TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083150
Played Sep 6Finished
Jaroslav Prokupek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117117114––
Jan Trefny
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Prokupek above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 70 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Jan Trefny at 59.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Prokupek 0–3 Jan Trefny Jaroslav Prokupek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Trefny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Trefny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prokupek 1455 vs Trefny 1613
Trefny
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prokupek 20% vs Trefny 80%
Trefny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prokupek 40% vs Trefny 80%
Trefny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prokupek -2 · Trefny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProkupek 2.25 / Trefny 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Trefny)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083150
Prokupek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 100 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back17% 20 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 76
Trefny1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 18 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeProkupek0wins
AwayTrefny3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTrefny leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prokupek2Trefny1n = 3Prokupek took 2 of 3
S2Prokupek0Trefny3n = 3Trefny took 3 of 3
S3Prokupek0Trefny3n = 3Trefny took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricProkupekTrefnyP − TBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match33.740.7−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProkupekTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime640 / 1346 vs 45 / 9247.6%48.9%640 / 1346 vs 45 / 92Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyProkupek 2.25/Trefny 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Prokupek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 4 · 24:30J. Prokupek—8960J. Trefny—1111113
LAug 25 · 23:00J. Prokupek—1186101J. Trefny—51111123
LAug 18 · 08:30J. Prokupek—111061152J. Trefny—712119113
J. Prokupek10
LSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91611681J. Dedek1.8011311113LSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.801111113J. Prokupek1.916750WSep 6 · 24:30J. Prokupek1.5031111113P. Fojt2.50116461LSep 5 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.0061171182V. Postelt1.73114118113LSep 5 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk2.10111114113J. Prokupek1.671381211WSep 4 · 16:58J. Prokupek1.50581111113D. Parhomenko2.5011117582LSep 4 · 16:30J. Prokupek3.104770F. Just1.301111113WSep 4 · 15:00J. Prokupek2.001111113D. Parhomenko1.739990
J. Trefny10
WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:00J. Trefny1.5711147123F. Jungman2.2551211101WSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113WSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110LSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Trefny2.6341111113J. Dedek1.44117781
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