TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086718
Played Sep 7Finished
Jan Svoboda
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1186115111214––
Jan Trefny
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Svoboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Svoboda above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 78 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Jan Svoboda at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Svoboda 0–1 Jan Trefny Jan Svoboda has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1617 vs Trefny 1634
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Trefny 60%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Trefny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Trefny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.25 / Trefny 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086718
Svoboda1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Trefny3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog48% won 25 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back23% 6 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSvoboda0wins
AwayTrefny1wins
Trefny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSvobodaTrefnyS − TBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.044.0−10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 13 vs 48 / 9653.9%50%7 / 13 vs 48 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.25/Trefny 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda—1165121J. Trefny—81111143
J. Svoboda10
WSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550WSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471LSep 5 · 07:00J. Svoboda2.2010111081M. Sedlak1.6112412113WSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113WAug 30 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.73118611113P. Budinsky2.0071111872LAug 30 · 07:00J. Svoboda1.803121161J. Stolfa1.91111013113LAug 30 · 06:00J. Hradecky1.531181011113J. Svoboda2.3851112792LAug 17 · 13:28M. Sobisek1.671111113J. Svoboda2.106430WAug 17 · 12:00J. Svoboda1.5091111113D. Tuma2.50115841
J. Trefny10
WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:00J. Trefny1.5711147123F. Jungman2.2551211101WSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113WSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110LSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Trefny2.6341111113J. Dedek1.44117781
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.