TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13075207
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911611––––
Michal Vedmoch
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 5–4 Michal Vedmoch Michal Vedmoch has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:59What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1575 vs Vedmoch 1643
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 80% vs Vedmoch 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 60% vs Vedmoch 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +4 · Vedmoch +2
Trefny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vedmoch) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.90 / Vedmoch 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vedmoch)+2.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13075207
Trefny1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 21 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Vedmoch1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 206 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it96% 99 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it80% 156 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeTrefny5wins
AwayVedmoch4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderTrefny leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefny80%4 of 5
AwayVedmoch75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny5Vedmoch4n = 9Trefny took 5 of 9
S2Trefny5Vedmoch4n = 9Trefny took 5 of 9
S3Trefny3Vedmoch6n = 9Vedmoch took 6 of 9
S4Trefny3Vedmoch2n = 5Trefny took 3 of 5
S5Trefny2Vedmoch1n = 3Trefny took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricTrefnyVedmochT − VBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match36.935.3+1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 86 vs 704 / 131147.7%53.7%41 / 86 vs 704 / 1311Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochTrefny 1.90/Vedmoch 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 3 · 23:30J. Trefny—812814113M. Vedmoch—1110111252
WSep 1 · 08:00J. Trefny—1171111113M. Vedmoch—41113692
LAug 31 · 10:30J. Trefny—13114532M. Vedmoch—1171111113
LAug 26 · 01:30J. Trefny—79100M. Vedmoch—1111123
WJul 30 · 02:30J. Trefny—1111113M. Vedmoch—8550
LJul 21 · 02:58J. Trefny—9960M. Vedmoch—1111113
WJul 20 · 23:30J. Trefny—1112113M. Vedmoch—81060
LJul 15 · 18:30J. Trefny—1361171M. Vedmoch—15117113
WJul 15 · 14:30J. Trefny—11115113M. Vedmoch—331151
J. Trefny10
LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:00J. Trefny1.5711147123F. Jungman2.2551211101WSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113WSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 4 · 02:30J. Dedek2.385650M. Vedmoch1.531111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Plachy2.20411681M. Vedmoch1.6111611113LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.571110111252J. Trefny2.25812814113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9144100WSep 3 · 13:29J. Plachy2.107650M. Vedmoch1.671111113LSep 3 · 12:00J. Plachy2.2091111113M. Vedmoch1.61117941WSep 3 · 11:00M. Kolar2.758161151M. Vedmoch1.4011186113WSep 3 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.801211113J. Prokupek1.9110880WSep 2 · 13:30J. Plachy2.00311651M. Vedmoch1.7311711113LSep 2 · 12:00J. Dedek2.38131198113M. Vedmoch1.53116111162
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