TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058916
Played Sep 2Finished
Jiri Dedek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311116911811116
Michal Vedmoch
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 97 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Vedmoch at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 31–33 Michal Vedmoch Jiri Dedek has won 31 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vedmoch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-33 in 64
Vedmoch
Wrong
gap of 2 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1537 vs Vedmoch 1606
Vedmoch
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 60% vs Vedmoch 80%
Vedmoch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 50% vs Vedmoch 90%
Vedmoch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek -1 · Vedmoch +4
Vedmoch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Vedmoch) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 2.38 / Vedmoch 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Vedmoch)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058916
Dedek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 78 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 72
Vedmoch1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 200 of 321
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it80% 152 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek2wins
AwayVedmoch8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVedmoch87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek2Vedmoch8n = 10Vedmoch took 8 of 10
S2Dedek3Vedmoch7n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S3Dedek6Vedmoch4n = 10Dedek took 6 of 10
S4Dedek1Vedmoch6n = 7Vedmoch took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekVedmochD − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.338.6−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 912 vs 698 / 130451.5%53.5%470 / 912 vs 698 / 1304Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochDedek 2.38/Vedmoch 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 19:00J. Dedek—811116113M. Vedmoch—11871132
LAug 24 · 20:00J. Dedek—9790M. Vedmoch—1111113
LAug 14 · 22:30J. Dedek—1151061M. Vedmoch—91112113
LAug 5 · 19:00J. Dedek—8790M. Vedmoch—1111113
LAug 5 · 24:30J. Dedek—11141161M. Vedmoch—13164113
LJul 30 · 02:58J. Dedek—9101161M. Vedmoch—11126113
LJul 30 · 01:00J. Dedek—951181M. Vedmoch—11119113
LJul 23 · 03:30J. Dedek—3116111M. Vedmoch—11911133
WJul 23 · 02:30J. Dedek—1113113M. Vedmoch—51180
LJul 17 · 19:00J. Dedek—99111182M. Vedmoch—111173113
J. Dedek10
LSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91611681J. Dedek1.8011311113WSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781LSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100WSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661WSep 6 · 15:00J. Dedek1.3311311113F. Jungman3.25911931LSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110WSep 4 · 21:07M. Placek2.70711561J. Dedek1.4011611113LSep 4 · 20:00J. Dedek2.757680V. Postelt1.401111113
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113WSep 4 · 02:30J. Dedek2.385650M. Vedmoch1.531111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Plachy2.20411681M. Vedmoch1.6111611113LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.571110111252J. Trefny2.25812814113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9144100WSep 3 · 13:29J. Plachy2.107650M. Vedmoch1.671111113LSep 3 · 12:00J. Plachy2.2091111113M. Vedmoch1.61117941WSep 3 · 11:00M. Kolar2.758161151M. Vedmoch1.4011186113WSep 3 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.801211113J. Prokupek1.9110880WSep 2 · 13:30J. Plachy2.00311651M. Vedmoch1.7311711113
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