TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065559
Played Sep 3Finished
Jiri Plachy
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117119114––
Michal Vedmoch
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 73 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Michal Vedmoch at 55.6%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 49–49 Michal Vedmoch Dead even across their 98 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vedmoch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-49 in 98
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1517 vs Vedmoch 1621
Vedmoch
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 80% vs Vedmoch 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 60% vs Vedmoch 80%
Vedmoch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy +2 · Vedmoch +3
Vedmoch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vedmoch) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 2.20 / Vedmoch 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vedmoch)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065559
Plachy2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 172 of 414
Down 0–1, comes back22% 52 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 126
Vedmoch1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 206 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it96% 99 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it80% 156 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlachy3wins
AwayVedmoch7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachy33.3%1 of 3
AwayVedmoch71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy3Vedmoch7n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S2Plachy6Vedmoch4n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S3Plachy5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S4Plachy2Vedmoch7n = 9Vedmoch took 7 of 9
S5Plachy2Vedmoch2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlachyVedmochP − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.040.8−3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime743 / 1608 vs 701 / 130746.2%53.6%743 / 1608 vs 701 / 1307Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochPlachy 2.20/Vedmoch 1.61
Miss
What we said
60.9%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 13:30J. Plachy—311651M. Vedmoch—11711113
LSep 2 · 10:30J. Plachy—34111172M. Vedmoch—111168113
LSep 2 · 09:30J. Plachy—115861M. Vedmoch—91111113
WSep 2 · 07:30J. Plachy—711145113M. Vedmoch—119121182
LSep 1 · 09:30J. Plachy—1091151M. Vedmoch—12114113
LSep 1 · 06:30J. Plachy—5116111M. Vedmoch—11511133
LAug 31 · 09:28J. Plachy—1211781M. Vedmoch—14311113
WAug 31 · 08:00J. Plachy—911115113M. Vedmoch—11941142
LAug 29 · 22:30J. Plachy—11991152M. Vedmoch—711117113
WAug 29 · 18:30J. Plachy—1111113M. Vedmoch—7990
J. Plachy10
WSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Plachy1.837880J. Prokupek1.831111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Plachy2.0011117113V. Postelt1.70491181WSep 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.801111113J. Prokupek1.916750LSep 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.7312660Y. Holovatiuk2.001411113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Postelt1.53108170J. Plachy2.381211193LSep 5 · 22:30P. Fojt1.831111113J. Plachy1.838780LSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113WSep 5 · 20:30K. Darin2.505511101J. Plachy1.5011118123LSep 5 · 19:30J. Plachy1.7397111692L. Krok2.001111814113
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113WSep 4 · 02:30J. Dedek2.385650M. Vedmoch1.531111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Plachy2.20411681M. Vedmoch1.6111611113LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.571110111252J. Trefny2.25812814113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9144100WSep 3 · 13:29J. Plachy2.107650M. Vedmoch1.671111113WSep 3 · 11:00M. Kolar2.758161151M. Vedmoch1.4011186113WSep 3 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.801211113J. Prokupek1.9110880WSep 2 · 13:30J. Plachy2.00311651M. Vedmoch1.7311711113LSep 2 · 12:00J. Dedek2.38131198113M. Vedmoch1.53116111162
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