TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065221
Played Sep 3Finished
Michal Vedmoch
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11810121181214511
Jan Trefny
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:33 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 102 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Michal Vedmoch at 56.6%
102 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 2–2 Jan Trefny Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vedmoch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1619 vs Trefny 1530
Vedmoch
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 80% vs Trefny 40%
Vedmoch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 80% vs Trefny 50%
Vedmoch
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +2 · Trefny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Vedmoch) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.57 / Trefny 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Vedmoch)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065221
Vedmoch1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 206 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it96% 99 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it80% 156 of 194
Trefny2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 21 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVedmoch2wins
AwayTrefny2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch2Trefny2n = 4split evenly
S2Vedmoch2Trefny2n = 4split evenly
S3Vedmoch2Trefny2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricVedmochTrefnyV − TBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match30.833.2−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime702 / 1308 vs 38 / 8353.7%45.8%702 / 1308 vs 38 / 83Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.235.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.57/Trefny 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 21 · 02:58M. Vedmoch—1111113J. Trefny—9960
LJul 20 · 23:30M. Vedmoch—81060J. Trefny—1112113
WJul 15 · 18:30M. Vedmoch—15117113J. Trefny—1361171
LJul 15 · 14:30M. Vedmoch—331151J. Trefny—11115113
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113WSep 4 · 02:30J. Dedek2.385650M. Vedmoch1.531111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Plachy2.20411681M. Vedmoch1.6111611113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9144100WSep 3 · 13:29J. Plachy2.107650M. Vedmoch1.671111113LSep 3 · 12:00J. Plachy2.2091111113M. Vedmoch1.61117941WSep 3 · 11:00M. Kolar2.758161151M. Vedmoch1.4011186113WSep 3 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.801211113J. Prokupek1.9110880WSep 2 · 13:30J. Plachy2.00311651M. Vedmoch1.7311711113LSep 2 · 12:00J. Dedek2.38131198113M. Vedmoch1.53116111162
J. Trefny10
LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:00J. Trefny1.5711147123F. Jungman2.2551211101WSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113
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