TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065122
Played Sep 3Finished
Milan Kolar
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111618116511––
Michal Vedmoch
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 16-18
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 86 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Michal Vedmoch at 70.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 13–27 Michal Vedmoch Milan Kolar has won 13 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-27 in 40
Vedmoch
Correct
gap of 14 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1427 vs Vedmoch 1614
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 20% vs Vedmoch 80%
Vedmoch
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 20% vs Vedmoch 80%
Vedmoch
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar -1 · Vedmoch +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Vedmoch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolar form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 2.75 / Vedmoch 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Vedmoch)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065122
Kolar2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 85 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47
Vedmoch1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 206 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it96% 99 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it80% 156 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolar2wins
AwayVedmoch8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolar20%1 of 5
AwayVedmoch80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolar5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolar3Vedmoch7n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S3Kolar5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolar1Vedmoch6n = 7Vedmoch took 6 of 7
S5Kolar1Vedmoch3n = 4Vedmoch took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolarVedmochK − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.039.9−4.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 805 vs 700 / 130649.8%53.6%401 / 805 vs 700 / 1306Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochKolar 2.75/Vedmoch 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 21:30M. Kolar—118791M. Vedmoch—91111113
LSep 1 · 19:00M. Kolar—117681M. Vedmoch—21111113
LAug 31 · 06:00M. Kolar—710111192M. Vedmoch—111298113
LAug 30 · 21:11M. Kolar—91080M. Vedmoch—1112113
LAug 30 · 19:30M. Kolar—6550M. Vedmoch—1111113
LAug 15 · 03:28M. Kolar—141127102M. Vedmoch—1281111123
LAug 15 · 24:30M. Kolar—11211632M. Vedmoch—511711113
WJul 20 · 09:30M. Kolar—7111110113M. Vedmoch—11651272
LJul 20 · 06:00M. Kolar—881421M. Vedmoch—111112113
WJul 18 · 12:30M. Kolar—1111113M. Vedmoch—6580
M. Kolar10
WSep 4 · 21:30M. Kolar1.9011118113V. Postelt1.80561181WSep 4 · 20:30M. Kolar2.00911611123M. Placek1.73116119102WSep 4 · 19:00M. Kolar2.2511811113V. Postelt1.57711291WSep 4 · 18:00J. Dedek1.9110115101M. Kolar1.8012311123WSep 4 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.541010111292M. Kolar2.181212710113WSep 4 · 12:30M. Kolar1.301111113J. Steffan3.408780WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971LSep 4 · 10:00D. Parhomenko1.73111011113M. Kolar2.00412851LSep 3 · 13:02J. Prokupek2.0091111113M. Kolar1.73117431LSep 3 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0015104111J. Prokupek1.73131211133
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113WSep 4 · 02:30J. Dedek2.385650M. Vedmoch1.531111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Plachy2.20411681M. Vedmoch1.6111611113LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.571110111252J. Trefny2.25812814113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9144100WSep 3 · 13:29J. Plachy2.107650M. Vedmoch1.671111113LSep 3 · 12:00J. Plachy2.2091111113M. Vedmoch1.61117941WSep 3 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.801211113J. Prokupek1.9110880WSep 2 · 13:30J. Plachy2.00311651M. Vedmoch1.7311711113LSep 2 · 12:00J. Dedek2.38131198113M. Vedmoch1.53116111162
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