TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070709
Played Sep 4Finished
Milan Kolar
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111166111191210
Marek Placek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMarek Placek to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Marek Placek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Marek Placek at 63.6%
96 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 9–21 Marek Placek Milan Kolar has won 9 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:08What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Placek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-21 in 30
Placek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1458 vs Placek 1453
Kolar
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 100% vs Placek 40%
Kolar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 50% vs Placek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar +5 · Placek -1
Kolar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Placek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Placek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 2.00 / Placek 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Placek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070709
Kolar2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 84 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Placek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 46 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolar4wins
AwayPlacek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPlacek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolar75%3 of 4
AwayPlacek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolar4Placek6n = 10Placek took 6 of 10
S2Kolar6Placek4n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S3Kolar5Placek5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolar7Placek3n = 10Kolar took 7 of 10
S5Kolar1Placek5n = 6Placek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolarPlacekK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.743.5−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarPlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 810 vs 202 / 38849.8%52.1%403 / 810 vs 202 / 388Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlacekKolar 2.00/Placek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Placek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 31 · 21:06M. Kolar—91111113M. Placek—119951
WJul 31 · 19:00M. Kolar—11118113M. Placek—751151
LJul 28 · 10:00M. Kolar—11118942M. Placek—981111113
LJun 16 · 24:30M. Kolar—811119112M. Placek—117611133
LJun 14 · 13:30M. Kolar—410111182M. Placek—111277113
WJun 14 · 11:00M. Kolar—128411183M. Placek—1011114162
WJun 12 · 17:30M. Kolar—11911113M. Placek—911671
LJun 12 · 14:00M. Kolar—211561M. Placek—11711113
LMay 19 · 10:00M. Kolar—611111152M. Placek—111396113
LApr 18 · 23:00M. Kolar—411811102M. Placek—119119123
M. Kolar10
WSep 4 · 21:30M. Kolar1.9011118113V. Postelt1.80561181WSep 4 · 19:00M. Kolar2.2511811113V. Postelt1.57711291WSep 4 · 18:00J. Dedek1.9110115101M. Kolar1.8012311123WSep 4 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.541010111292M. Kolar2.181212710113WSep 4 · 12:30M. Kolar1.301111113J. Steffan3.408780WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971LSep 4 · 10:00D. Parhomenko1.73111011113M. Kolar2.00412851LSep 3 · 13:02J. Prokupek2.0091111113M. Kolar1.73117431LSep 3 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0015104111J. Prokupek1.73131211133LSep 3 · 11:00M. Kolar2.758161151M. Vedmoch1.4011186113
M. Placek10
LSep 4 · 21:07M. Placek2.70711561J. Dedek1.4011611113LSep 4 · 19:30M. Placek2.506360J. Dedek1.501111113WSep 4 · 18:30V. Postelt1.441011124122M. Placek2.631271011143LSep 4 · 17:00M. Placek1.831189101K. Darin1.8351111123WSep 4 · 16:30K. Darin1.831111111032M. Placek1.83951312113LSep 4 · 15:30M. Placek2.50118100Y. Holovatiuk1.501311123WSep 4 · 14:30D. Horak2.50117961M. Placek1.5071111113LAug 28 · 21:28Y. Holovatiuk1.531011115113M. Placek2.3812921172LAug 28 · 20:00M. Placek2.1010780Y. Holovatiuk1.671211113WAug 28 · 19:30F. Briza3.7549131132M. Placek1.251111117113
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