TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070642
Played Sep 4Finished
David Horak
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711911611––
Marek Placek
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeMarek Placek to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Horak above · Marek Placek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Marek Placek at 56.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H David Horak 8–16 Marek Placek David Horak has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Placek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-16 in 24
Placek
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1450 vs Placek 1470
Placek
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 40% vs Placek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 50% vs Placek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -2 · Placek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Placek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Placek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 2.50 / Placek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Placek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070642
Horak2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 24 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Placek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 46 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorak0wins
AwayPlacek10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlacek leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPlacek100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak2Placek8n = 10Placek took 8 of 10
S2Horak5Placek5n = 10split evenly
S3Horak3Placek7n = 10Placek took 7 of 10
S4Horak0Placek8n = 8Placek took 8 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorakPlacekH − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.341.9−9.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakPlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 510 vs 199 / 38253.7%52.1%274 / 510 vs 199 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlacekHorak 2.50/Placek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Placek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Placek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 14 · 12:00D. Horak—511111152M. Placek—118813113
LJun 12 · 15:00D. Horak—1011571M. Placek—12811113
LMay 23 · 21:30D. Horak—95100M. Placek—1111123
LMay 23 · 18:00D. Horak—1110491M. Placek—91211113
LMay 3 · 06:30D. Horak—6750M. Placek—1111113
LMay 1 · 21:30D. Horak—771191M. Placek—11119113
LMay 1 · 18:30D. Horak—911521M. Placek—11811113
LApr 19 · 02:30D. Horak—6411131M. Placek—11119153
LApr 3 · 01:30D. Horak—11115872M. Placek—981111113
LMar 29 · 16:00D. Horak—711881M. Placek—11411113
D. Horak10
LSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 01:30D. Horak2.50116971Y. Holovatiuk1.5071111113WSep 5 · 24:30R. Bartunek2.75114110D. Horak1.401311133LSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:30D. Horak1.801011691K. Darin1.9112811113LSep 4 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.571111113D. Horak2.259470WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk1.6751181182D. Horak2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:00K. Darin1.917911101D. Horak1.8011118123LSep 2 · 17:06D. Horak2.40101040M. Kolar1.511212113LSep 2 · 16:30F. Briza2.2511111111113D. Horak1.5741381372
M. Placek10
LSep 4 · 21:07M. Placek2.70711561J. Dedek1.4011611113LSep 4 · 20:30M. Kolar2.00911611123M. Placek1.73116119102LSep 4 · 19:30M. Placek2.506360J. Dedek1.501111113WSep 4 · 18:30V. Postelt1.441011124122M. Placek2.631271011143LSep 4 · 17:00M. Placek1.831189101K. Darin1.8351111123WSep 4 · 16:30K. Darin1.831111111032M. Placek1.83951312113LSep 4 · 15:30M. Placek2.50118100Y. Holovatiuk1.501311123LAug 28 · 21:28Y. Holovatiuk1.531011115113M. Placek2.3812921172LAug 28 · 20:00M. Placek2.1010780Y. Holovatiuk1.671211113WAug 28 · 19:30F. Briza3.7549131132M. Placek1.251111117113
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