TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071834
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181158111210––
David Horak
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Horak to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Steffan above · David Horak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held David Horak at 71.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 2–8 David Horak Jan Steffan has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Horak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Horak
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1449 vs Horak 1450
Horak
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 20% vs Horak 40%
Horak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 40% vs Horak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan -1 · Horak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Horak) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 3.40 / Horak 1.30
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Horak)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071834
Steffan3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 92 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70
Horak1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 135 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan2wins
AwayHorak8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHorak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan25%1 of 4
AwayHorak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan4Horak6n = 10Horak took 6 of 10
S2Steffan3Horak7n = 10Horak took 7 of 10
S3Steffan2Horak8n = 10Horak took 8 of 10
S4Steffan2Horak4n = 6Horak took 4 of 6
S5Steffan1Horak2n = 3Horak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanHorakS − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.938.9−8.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime463 / 962 vs 276 / 51548.1%53.6%463 / 962 vs 276 / 515Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakSteffan 3.40/Horak 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.9%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 02:30J. Steffan—4480D. Horak—1111113
LAug 27 · 24:00J. Steffan—11114632D. Horak—931111113
LJun 22 · 16:00J. Steffan—49100D. Horak—1111123
WJun 20 · 01:00J. Steffan—81111113D. Horak—116991
LJun 5 · 20:00J. Steffan—11413862D. Horak—5111111113
LApr 5 · 24:30J. Steffan—4270D. Horak—1111113
LMar 27 · 19:00J. Steffan—1281191D. Horak—101113113
LSep 5 · 20:00J. Steffan—4730D. Horak—1111113
LMar 29 · 10:30J. Steffan—811691D. Horak—11611113
WMar 29 · 09:00J. Steffan—1112611113D. Horak—61411662
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113WSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113LSep 4 · 12:30M. Kolar1.301111113J. Steffan3.408780
D. Horak10
LSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 01:30D. Horak2.50116971Y. Holovatiuk1.5071111113WSep 5 · 24:30R. Bartunek2.75114110D. Horak1.401311133LSep 4 · 22:30D. Horak1.801011691K. Darin1.9112811113LSep 4 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.571111113D. Horak2.259470WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk1.6751181182D. Horak2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:00K. Darin1.917911101D. Horak1.8011118123LSep 4 · 14:30D. Horak2.50117961M. Placek1.5071111113LSep 2 · 17:06D. Horak2.40101040M. Kolar1.511212113LSep 2 · 16:30F. Briza2.2511111111113D. Horak1.5741381372
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