TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070706
Played Sep 4Finished
Milan Kolar
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Jan Steffan
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Milan Kolar at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 8–2 Jan Steffan Jan Steffan has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:12What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kolar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Kolar
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1402 vs Steffan 1472
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 20% vs Steffan 60%
Steffan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 20% vs Steffan 50%
Steffan
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar +1 · Steffan -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kolar) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 1.30 / Steffan 3.40
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kolar)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13070706
Kolar1.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 129 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it88% 66 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it74% 98 of 132
Steffan3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 92 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolar8wins
AwaySteffan2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolar leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolar100%7 of 7
AwaySteffan66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolar7Steffan3n = 10Kolar took 7 of 10
S2Kolar5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolar8Steffan2n = 10Kolar took 8 of 10
S4Kolar6Steffan2n = 8Kolar took 6 of 8
S5Kolar2Steffan2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolarSteffanK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.532.0+10.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 808 vs 462 / 95949.6%48.2%401 / 808 vs 462 / 959Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolarKolar 1.30/Steffan 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.1%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 4 · 18:30M. Kolar—11911113J. Steffan—211581
LJun 3 · 16:30M. Kolar—105111192J. Steffan—121175113
WMay 28 · 20:30M. Kolar—81111113J. Steffan—112671
WMar 20 · 10:30M. Kolar—11911113J. Steffan—911481
WMar 20 · 07:30M. Kolar—1111113J. Steffan—5260
WDec 28 · 03:30M. Kolar—11911123J. Steffan—6114101
WOct 9 · 10:00M. Kolar—11101011113J. Steffan—41212842
LJul 7 · 17:30M. Kolar—711111062J. Steffan—119612113
WJul 7 · 15:30M. Kolar—111158113J. Steffan—47111142
WMar 31 · 24:30M. Kolar—1112113J. Steffan—51050
M. Kolar10
WSep 4 · 21:30M. Kolar1.9011118113V. Postelt1.80561181WSep 4 · 20:30M. Kolar2.00911611123M. Placek1.73116119102WSep 4 · 19:00M. Kolar2.2511811113V. Postelt1.57711291WSep 4 · 18:00J. Dedek1.9110115101M. Kolar1.8012311123WSep 4 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.541010111292M. Kolar2.181212710113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971LSep 4 · 10:00D. Parhomenko1.73111011113M. Kolar2.00412851LSep 3 · 13:02J. Prokupek2.0091111113M. Kolar1.73117431LSep 3 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0015104111J. Prokupek1.73131211133LSep 3 · 11:00M. Kolar2.758161151M. Vedmoch1.4011186113
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113WSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113
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